Can we regulate China and USA secret AI programs ? Nuclear non proliferation treaties work because nuclear industry is harder to hide, and is expensive to prod

Can we regulate China and USA secret AI programs ? Nuclear non proliferation treaties work because nuclear industry is harder to hide, and is expensive to produce and maintain nukes you will probably not need anyway. But when we are able to negotiate with China and USA to stop this then we can entertain the idea of regulating AI research. I wish we could regulate based on evidence and data and not on feelings of fear We can regulate some uses of AI based on facts, like not allow "smart dudes" create AI therapists, medics, lawyers as commercial things,because where it is greed there will be less concern for safety and human supervision will not exist .