4 ms·

Interception of intermediate-range BMs is much more expensive than short-range (and slower) missiles. Israel are likely being discriminating in what they count

Interception of intermediate-range BMs is much more expensive than short-range (and slower) missiles. Israel are likely being discriminating in what they counter. They may also have limited antimissile munitions. Cost-wise, defence costs ~$1m -- 3.5m per launch. The attacks are costing Iran ~$80k per missile. So that's a ~$15m attack which would cost ~$400m to defend against completely. The Guardian discussed this: <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/stopping-iran-attack-would-have-forced-israel-to-use-sophisticated-and-expensive-defences https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/stopping-iran-...>.

weatherlite 2y ago
A high quality ballistic missile costs in the millions. Iran is estimated to have around 3000 of them, so its not like they're an infinite resource.
compsciphd 2y ago
I know the Guardian wrote "80K (pounds, not dollars) or more. However, I question that floor. I wonder what long range ballistic missile actually costs only 80K pounds.
- pinewurst 2y ago
  Some cheesy Scud derivative banged out with low labor costs and minimal regard for materials and tolerances? Probably cost as much in HE and fuel as baseline hw under mass production.
- paulnpace 2y ago
  What are the ingredients to a missile? 1 fashioned cylinder, 4 winglets, 1 Raspberry Pi, 1 large glob of explosives, 1 solid fuel propellant? Obviously I'm being facetious, but we're not talking about some crazy hi-tech gizmos or even genuinely ground-breaking technology, and that price does get a Tesla or two, so really $100,000 isn't cheap. Plus we are not discussing U.S. DoD contractor prices which "everyone knows" have no known correlation to reality.
  - compsciphd 2y ago
    http://nations-militaryequipmentlist.weebly.com/ballistic-missiles.html http://nations-militaryequipmentlist.weebly.com/ballistic-mi... take it for what you will, but lists the cheapest iranian long range ballistic missile at $3mil (and no longer in production) this seems to have similar data https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/neither-israel-nor-iran-likely-able-to-sustain-long-drawn-war-say-experts-17811706 https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/neither-israel-nor-iran... > "The (Iranian) drones are not costly, around $50,000 (and) $250,000 for each cruise missile and from $1 to 10 million for a ballistic missile, depending on the model," he says.
  - dredmorbius 2y ago
    Hamas's Qassam rockets are basically steel pipe, fins, nozzle, sugar + fertiliser solid fuel, and warhead of various materials: TNT, ammonium nitrate, possibly a grenade. No guidance. These are basically aerial mines and serve as area-denial weapons. Of the many thousands of Qassam rockets launched, they've inflicted 23 deaths (22 Israeli citizens, one Thai national), per Wikipedia: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket>
myth_drannon 2y ago
That's why Arrow 4 and 5 that are being developed are half the price.
dredmorbius 2y ago
Another factor: in the earlier attack, Israel and the US had days to prepare. Combined with heavy use of slow drones (which can be tracked and hunted down), this permitted far more positioning and preparation of countermeasures. Yesterday's defence was mobilised in hours to minutes. The ballistic flight time from Iran to Israel is twelve minutes.

weatherlite 2y ago

A high quality ballistic missile costs in the millions. Iran is estimated to have around 3000 of them, so its not like they're an infinite resource.

compsciphd 2y ago

I know the Guardian wrote "80K (pounds, not dollars) or more. However, I question that floor. I wonder what long range ballistic missile actually costs only 80K pounds.

pinewurst 2y ago
Some cheesy Scud derivative banged out with low labor costs and minimal regard for materials and tolerances? Probably cost as much in HE and fuel as baseline hw under mass production.
paulnpace 2y ago
What are the ingredients to a missile? 1 fashioned cylinder, 4 winglets, 1 Raspberry Pi, 1 large glob of explosives, 1 solid fuel propellant? Obviously I'm being facetious, but we're not talking about some crazy hi-tech gizmos or even genuinely ground-breaking technology, and that price does get a Tesla or two, so really $100,000 isn't cheap. Plus we are not discussing U.S. DoD contractor prices which "everyone knows" have no known correlation to reality.
- compsciphd 2y ago
  http://nations-militaryequipmentlist.weebly.com/ballistic-missiles.html http://nations-militaryequipmentlist.weebly.com/ballistic-mi... take it for what you will, but lists the cheapest iranian long range ballistic missile at $3mil (and no longer in production) this seems to have similar data https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/neither-israel-nor-iran-likely-able-to-sustain-long-drawn-war-say-experts-17811706 https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/neither-israel-nor-iran... > "The (Iranian) drones are not costly, around $50,000 (and) $250,000 for each cruise missile and from $1 to 10 million for a ballistic missile, depending on the model," he says.
- dredmorbius 2y ago
  Hamas's Qassam rockets are basically steel pipe, fins, nozzle, sugar + fertiliser solid fuel, and warhead of various materials: TNT, ammonium nitrate, possibly a grenade. No guidance. These are basically aerial mines and serve as area-denial weapons. Of the many thousands of Qassam rockets launched, they've inflicted 23 deaths (22 Israeli citizens, one Thai national), per Wikipedia: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket>

myth_drannon 2y ago

That's why Arrow 4 and 5 that are being developed are half the price.

dredmorbius 2y ago

Another factor: in the earlier attack, Israel and the US had days to prepare. Combined with heavy use of slow drones (which can be tracked and hunted down), this permitted far more positioning and preparation of countermeasures. Yesterday's defence was mobilised in hours to minutes. The ballistic flight time from Iran to Israel is twelve minutes.