I think there are some interesting issues in the theories (as well as peak oil theories). The key problem is that with a lower EROI, unconventional hydrocarbon

I think there are some interesting issues in the theories (as well as peak oil theories). The key problem is that with a lower EROI, unconventional hydrocarbon sources are going to be fundamentally more expensive. So I don't think you can see a price collapse in oil as a result. Conventional hydrocarbon production also may or may not have peaked, but the principle reason for any peak is likely to be economic in nature rather than solely dependant on what's in the ground. Prior to the 1960's oil discovery was still growing. After the 1960's conventional oil discovery had peaked, and I see this as a major reason why the 1973 oil crisis was possible-- there was a growing awareness that oil was a finite resource that wouldn't be with us forever. After 1973, oil prices have, adjusted for inflation, never returned to their pre-1973 stability or level. This represents a shift where oil has been supply-restricted rather than demand restricted (if peak discovery is peak 1, this is peak 2). Peak 3 may be a peak in conventional oil production (light sweet crude). I think we are at peak regarding LSC production and have been for some time, and that peak is political and economic rather than reserve-based.