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Russia is facing: * 20% interest rates * 9% inflation * dropping demand for oil * increased supply from Saudi from oil to drop the price * increasing diffi

Russia is facing: * 20% interest rates * 9% inflation * dropping demand for oil * increased supply from Saudi from oil to drop the price * increasing difficulty accessing any foreign currency including a big inflection point at oct 12 * a large labor shortage * accelerating military costs * about 50% of their reserve funds spent (there’s some accounting magic going on here; the book value is inflated by shares of state owned companies; the 50% here refers to actual cash and liquid assets) * No apparent will or capacity to exit this war which is now its economic lifeblood Imo we could see hyper inflation here within the decade

kranke155 2y ago
I would make a soft prediction that if the Ukraine war ends, Russia will be welcomed into the fold and a lot of the sanctions will be slowly taken away in exchange for energy. So although Russia’s current situation isn’t great, I’m not sure this will hold up in 5 years.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Would you care to elaborate as to under what sort of agreement (specifically in terms of territorial arrangements, but also any other key concessions that come to mind) you see the war "ending" in the near term? And will Russia need to pay any sort of financial compensation to Ukraine, or will it simply be "welcomed into the fold"?
  - kranke155 2y ago
    If Trump wins, it seems like Russia will get all occupied territories, Ukraine will be offered a fig leaf of weak security guarantees. Russia will then likely be eased back into the intl. community with very little punishment by the Trump admin. This one of the Trump team's most consistent positions - that the Ukraine war is a nothingburguer that needs to "end" through concessions by Ukraine.
- benterix 2y ago
  They already showed they are the single nation of the XXI century that is going to war with its neighbors and is sending nuclear threats everywhere. Once their mask fell off, who in their right mind would want to do anything to make them stronger? A whole generational attitude would have to change.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  I’m dubious that Europe (or the US, but it’s mostly Europe's fault) could be fooled into falling for this con a second time.

kranke155 2y ago

I would make a soft prediction that if the Ukraine war ends, Russia will be welcomed into the fold and a lot of the sanctions will be slowly taken away in exchange for energy. So although Russia’s current situation isn’t great, I’m not sure this will hold up in 5 years.

aguaviva 2y ago
Would you care to elaborate as to under what sort of agreement (specifically in terms of territorial arrangements, but also any other key concessions that come to mind) you see the war "ending" in the near term? And will Russia need to pay any sort of financial compensation to Ukraine, or will it simply be "welcomed into the fold"?
- kranke155 2y ago
  If Trump wins, it seems like Russia will get all occupied territories, Ukraine will be offered a fig leaf of weak security guarantees. Russia will then likely be eased back into the intl. community with very little punishment by the Trump admin. This one of the Trump team's most consistent positions - that the Ukraine war is a nothingburguer that needs to "end" through concessions by Ukraine.
benterix 2y ago
They already showed they are the single nation of the XXI century that is going to war with its neighbors and is sending nuclear threats everywhere. Once their mask fell off, who in their right mind would want to do anything to make them stronger? A whole generational attitude would have to change.
jncfhnb 2y ago
I’m dubious that Europe (or the US, but it’s mostly Europe's fault) could be fooled into falling for this con a second time.