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I know I'm not the first to say this, but I think what's going on is that these AI things can produce results that are very mid. A sort of extra medium. Experts

by sqeaky 2y ago

I know I'm not the first to say this, but I think what's going on is that these AI things can produce results that are very mid. A sort of extra medium. Experts beat modern LLMs but modern llms are better than a gap. If you just need voice discussing some topic because that has utility and you can't afford a pair of podcasters (damn, check your couch cushions) then having a mid podcast is better than having no podcast. But if you need expert Insight because expert Insight is your product and you happen to deliver it through a podcast then you need an expert. If I were a small software shop and I wanted something like a weekly update describing this week's updates for my customers and I have a dozen developers and none of us are particularly vocally charismatic putting a weekly update generated from commits, completed tickets, and developer notes might be useful. The audience would be very targeted and the podcast wouldn't be my main product, but there's no way I'd be able to afford expert level podcasters for such a position. I would argue Perun is a world class defense Logistics expert or at least expert enough, passionate enough, and charismatic enough to present as such. Just like the guys who do Knowledge Fight, are world class experts on debunking Alex Jones, and Jack Rhysider is an expert and Fanboy of computer security so Darknet Diaries excels, and so on... These aren't for making products, they can't compete with the experts in the attention economy. But they can fill gaps and if you need audio delivery of something about your product this might be really good. Edit - but as you said the robots will catch up, I just don't know if they'll catch up with this batch of algorithms or if it'll be the next round.

FranzFerdiNaN 2y ago
> I know I'm not the first to say this, but I think what's going on is that these AI things can produce results that are very mid. A sort of extra medium. Experts beat modern LLMs but modern llms are better than a gap. I've seen people manage to wrangle tools like Midjourney to get results that surpass extra medium. And most human artists barely manage to reach medium quality too. The real danger of AI is that, as a society, we need a lot of people who will never be anything but mediocre still going for it, so we can end up with a few who do manage to reach excellence. If AI causes people to just give up even trying and just hit generate on a podcast or image generator, than that is going to be a big problem in the long run. Or not, and we just end up being stuck in world that is even more mediocre than it is now.
- squigz 2y ago
  > as a society, we need a lot of people who will never be anything but mediocre still going for it, so we can end up with a few who do manage to reach excellence Do we though? That seems bleak.
  - eszed 2y ago
    "Reach excellence" is the key phrase there. Excellence takes time and work, and most everyone who gets there is mediocre for a while first. I guess if AIs become excellent at everything, and the gains are shared, and the human race is liberated into a post-scarcity future of gay space communism, then it's fine. But that's not where it's looked like we're heading so far, though - at least in creative fields. I'd include - perhaps not quite yet, but it's close - development in that category. How many on this board started out writing mid-level CRUD apps for a mid-level living? If that path is closed to future devs, how does anyone level up?
    - squigz 2y ago
      > But that's not where it's looked like we're heading so far I think one of the major reasons this is the case is because people think it's just not possible; that the way we've done things is the only possible way we can continue to do things. I hope that changes, because I do believe AI will continue to improve and displace jobs.
      - eszed 2y ago
        My skepticism is not (necessarily) based on the potential capabilities of future AI, it's about the distribution of the returns from improved productivity. That's a political - not a technological - problem, and the last half century has demonstrated most countries unable to distribute resources in ways which trend towards post-scarcity. That may be your position as well - indeed, I think your point about "people think[ing] it's not possible" is directly relevant - but I wanted to make that more explicit than I did in my original comment.
- roenxi 2y ago

by sqeaky 2y ago

FranzFerdiNaN 2y ago

> I know I'm not the first to say this, but I think what's going on is that these AI things can produce results that are very mid. A sort of extra medium. Experts beat modern LLMs but modern llms are better than a gap. I've seen people manage to wrangle tools like Midjourney to get results that surpass extra medium. And most human artists barely manage to reach medium quality too. The real danger of AI is that, as a society, we need a lot of people who will never be anything but mediocre still going for it, so we can end up with a few who do manage to reach excellence. If AI causes people to just give up even trying and just hit generate on a podcast or image generator, than that is going to be a big problem in the long run. Or not, and we just end up being stuck in world that is even more mediocre than it is now.

squigz 2y ago
> as a society, we need a lot of people who will never be anything but mediocre still going for it, so we can end up with a few who do manage to reach excellence Do we though? That seems bleak.
- eszed 2y ago
  "Reach excellence" is the key phrase there. Excellence takes time and work, and most everyone who gets there is mediocre for a while first. I guess if AIs become excellent at everything, and the gains are shared, and the human race is liberated into a post-scarcity future of gay space communism, then it's fine. But that's not where it's looked like we're heading so far, though - at least in creative fields. I'd include - perhaps not quite yet, but it's close - development in that category. How many on this board started out writing mid-level CRUD apps for a mid-level living? If that path is closed to future devs, how does anyone level up?
  - squigz 2y ago
    > But that's not where it's looked like we're heading so far I think one of the major reasons this is the case is because people think it's just not possible; that the way we've done things is the only possible way we can continue to do things. I hope that changes, because I do believe AI will continue to improve and displace jobs.
    - eszed 2y ago
      My skepticism is not (necessarily) based on the potential capabilities of future AI, it's about the distribution of the returns from improved productivity. That's a political - not a technological - problem, and the last half century has demonstrated most countries unable to distribute resources in ways which trend towards post-scarcity. That may be your position as well - indeed, I think your point about "people think[ing] it's not possible" is directly relevant - but I wanted to make that more explicit than I did in my original comment.
roenxi 2y ago