3 ms·

Yeah, I’ve never got the “it’s stealth layoffs” or “because we need to use the offices we pay for” or “for the tax breaks” arguments. The math just doesn’t work

by billti 2y ago

Yeah, I’ve never got the “it’s stealth layoffs” or “because we need to use the offices we pay for” or “for the tax breaks” arguments. The math just doesn’t work out. Staff are such a huge part of costs, and the difference between your good staff and bad staff can break a company. Adopting any policy that would encourage the staff who can go elsewhere (the best ones) to leave and be left with the ones who can’t (the less good ones) is such a huge risk, you wouldn’t take that position for a few million dollars, but only if you believed it’s the best strategy long term. It is interesting to me though that with so many companies taking this stance lately, many of them heavily data driven (like Amazon), that I’ve not yet seen any actual data or research that says “Here are some quantitive numbers on what we think having folks back in the office is worth”. Anyone got any data on this?

op00to 2y ago
That’s the cool thing. At the top, there are humans making decisions, but based on their gut rather than data.
woleium 2y ago
I doubt they would share their data, but do consider that the average tenure at Amazon is around 2 years and that they disproportionately hire a lot of recent graduates. We do know that junior staff are mostly negatively impacted by wfh, so it’s a small step to seeing they need to bring the seniors back to mentor the juniors.
- shagie 2y ago
  From a comment of mine two weeks ago... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41562625 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41562625 > There's also the question of even if remote work was more productive on the whole (and I believe this to be true) and that these productivity gains come from the more senior workers who are able to identify tasks that they need to complete and effectively shut the door on the office and focus ... while also being able to handle other things at home (being more productive because you can put a load of laundry in at noon or being able to get something to eat without having to go all the way to the break room)... > So, grant that on the whole productivity is higher with WFH for mid level and senior level individual contributors ... junior ICs may be suffering quietly without more direct mentorship, the listening in on ad-hoc hallway meetings, managers being able to pick up on work stress more easily. > It would be very easy to imagine a conversation at some director level (where I'm making up the numbers)... "From 2020 to 2024, we've seen the number of junior ICs advance to mid level drop from 20% to 16% compared to 2016 to 2020. This is a declining trend and when looked at year over year 2020 to 2021 had 8% advancement while 2023 to 2024 only showed 4% advancement. Furthermore, the senior ICs are comfortable in their role and the number of them moving up to management has dropped from 5% to 3% in the 2020 to 2024 time frame. If this continues, we may be looking at a lot of unsatisfied junior developers who are not progressing and a lot of satisfied senior developers and leads who would traditionally shift to the management track... well, not take that step in their career progression." > Yes, that's a just-so story. I find it to be a believable one. > So even if everything is great with remote work currently for productivity, some trends may be showing a problem years down the road where people are not improving and the company as a whole is stagnating (even more).
danaris 2y ago
Right: so many of the decisions to treat employees poorly, going way back before the pandemic and the rise of remote work, are not about money (though they are usually justified by talking about money in a superficial way); they're about power, and classism. If our Just And True Overlords (ie, the bosses) can't walk around and see the people they command doing everything they tell them with their own two eyes, then what's even the point of being one of the Just And True Overlords?

by billti 2y ago

op00to 2y ago

That’s the cool thing. At the top, there are humans making decisions, but based on their gut rather than data.

woleium 2y ago

I doubt they would share their data, but do consider that the average tenure at Amazon is around 2 years and that they disproportionately hire a lot of recent graduates. We do know that junior staff are mostly negatively impacted by wfh, so it’s a small step to seeing they need to bring the seniors back to mentor the juniors.

shagie 2y ago
From a comment of mine two weeks ago... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41562625 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41562625 > There's also the question of even if remote work was more productive on the whole (and I believe this to be true) and that these productivity gains come from the more senior workers who are able to identify tasks that they need to complete and effectively shut the door on the office and focus ... while also being able to handle other things at home (being more productive because you can put a load of laundry in at noon or being able to get something to eat without having to go all the way to the break room)... > So, grant that on the whole productivity is higher with WFH for mid level and senior level individual contributors ... junior ICs may be suffering quietly without more direct mentorship, the listening in on ad-hoc hallway meetings, managers being able to pick up on work stress more easily. > It would be very easy to imagine a conversation at some director level (where I'm making up the numbers)... "From 2020 to 2024, we've seen the number of junior ICs advance to mid level drop from 20% to 16% compared to 2016 to 2020. This is a declining trend and when looked at year over year 2020 to 2021 had 8% advancement while 2023 to 2024 only showed 4% advancement. Furthermore, the senior ICs are comfortable in their role and the number of them moving up to management has dropped from 5% to 3% in the 2020 to 2024 time frame. If this continues, we may be looking at a lot of unsatisfied junior developers who are not progressing and a lot of satisfied senior developers and leads who would traditionally shift to the management track... well, not take that step in their career progression." > Yes, that's a just-so story. I find it to be a believable one. > So even if everything is great with remote work currently for productivity, some trends may be showing a problem years down the road where people are not improving and the company as a whole is stagnating (even more).

danaris 2y ago

Right: so many of the decisions to treat employees poorly, going way back before the pandemic and the rise of remote work, are not about money (though they are usually justified by talking about money in a superficial way); they're about power, and classism. If our Just And True Overlords (ie, the bosses) can't walk around and see the people they command doing everything they tell them with their own two eyes, then what's even the point of being one of the Just And True Overlords?