> But a rigorous proof that problem X can't be reduced to architecture Y is generally very hard to construct, and most people making these claims don't have one

> But a rigorous proof that problem X can't be reduced to architecture Y is generally very hard to construct, and most people making these claims don't have one. Requirement for proof is backwards. It's the ones that claim that thing reasons that needs proof. They've provided evidence (albeit shakey), but evidence isn't proof. So your reasoning is a bit off base (albeit understandable and logical) since evidence contrary to the claim isn't proof either. But the burden of proof isn't on the one countering the claim, it's on the one making the claim. I need to make this extra clear because framing can make the direction of burden confusing. So using an obvious example: if I claim there's ghosts in my house (something millions of people believe and similarly claim) we generally do not dismiss someone who is skeptical of these claims and offers an alternative explanation (even when it isn't perfectly precise). Because the burden of proof is on the person making the stronger claim. Sure, there are people that will dismiss that too, but they want to believe in ghosts. So the question is if we want to believe in ghosts in the (shell) machine. It's very easy to be fooled, so we must keep our guard up. And we also shouldn't feel embarrassed when we've been tricked. It happens to everyone. Anyone that claims they've never been fooled is only telling you that they are skillful at fooling themselves. I for one did buy into AGI being close when GPT 3 came out. Most researchers I knew did too! But as we learned more about what was actually going on under the hood I think many of us changed our minds (just as we changed our minds after seeing GPT). Being able to change your mind is a good thing.