5 ms·

the execs are just salivating to commodotize us. my experience with outsourcing tells me we are fine.

ben_w 2y ago
It's fine right up until it isn't. The chance that "this time it's different" can't even be reasonably inferred from the inside. Induction from the perspective of the seasonal turkey: https://mashimo.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/bertrand-russells-inductivist-turkey/ https://mashimo.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/bertrand-russells-i...
- from-nibly 2y ago
  If offshore humans can't beat on shore humans what chance does AI have in the near future?
  - cr125rider 2y ago
    The “paradox” (or whatever you might want to call it) with software is if I can describe the business case, with all of its side effects and outputs for unhappy paths, in enough detail, I’ve just done all the hard part of writing software. If AI can help with that last 20ish percent then great. The challenge with offshoring, and now LLMs, is that it takes as much time to describe the problem and outputs than it doesn’t to just write the dang code.
    - wakawaka28 2y ago
      It is rare to ever see a software project with all behaviors spelled out in English. I think the effort required to do that is rarely necessary, and people just write code instead. "Documentation" usually means that you wrote down how to use the thing, plus some non-obvious details.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    If I could predict that, I could beat the market. Inventing the difference would be both a fun technical challenge and a way to get a terrifying lynch mob at my door. Merely knowing how far away it is would help me know how to plan early retirement (kinda already could except for being a migrant).
Buttons840 2y ago
If they commoditize us, then they will have commoditized themselves.
- teaearlgraycold 2y ago
  Right. By the time I’m automated we pretty much have AGI.
- amusedcyclist 2y ago
  Executive isn't a "job", its a status, its not a skill, its just a position in the hierarchy, so no they will not have commoditized themselves
  - wakawaka28 2y ago
    Being an executive totally requires skills. Are they unique skills that only executives have? Not really. But people management and resource management in general require skills, wisdom, etc. If someone is made an executive and they don't have the required skills, they will usually blow up their project or company.
    - amusedcyclist 2y ago
      I don't doubt that an executive requires a certain temperament that lots of people don't have and that the people who become executives are generally intelligent and capable. What I'm saying is that it is not a "trade" or "profession" that has specific teachable skills, knowledge bases and responsibilities like "engineer" or "lawyer" or "plumber"
      - wakawaka28 2y ago
        There totally are specific teachable skills involved with being an executive, although they are abstract for the most part. Above all an executive should have an adequate understanding of the thing they manage. But resource management, estimation, accounting, public speaking, knowledge of relevant laws, workplace psychology, etc. are all skills that executives need and can be taught. If you meet an executive with these skills and then meet one without them, you'll know what I'm talking about. I would also say the same of sales jobs, but sales is relatively narrow.
heyoni 2y ago
Exactly. It’s always been possible to commoditize software engineering _if_ you could find the right developers overseas but the fact is we are where we are because it’s hard and almost impossible to manage. And either way, talented developers from developing countries are often brought on with visas and end up with salaries close to the industry norm. I’ve been involved with large mergers with overseas dev teams and that’s how it’s always been. At best, AI is just good documentation. This whole craze is the equivalent of saying doctors won’t be necessary because you can just google how to do x procedure.
qeternity 2y ago
[flagged]
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  > If management believes it can source labor at a lower cost, they have a legal fiduciary duty to do so. Only if that's the only variable, which it never is.
  - nightpool 2y ago
    Exactly. Execs see the monthly spend, people actually doing the work see the long-term externalities and hidden costs. Many, many people I know would and do buy more expensive (often Made in USA but not always) products when doing so means that the products will last longer and need less maintenance. Treating labor as commodities implies that the labor is interchangeable. Everyone who's actually done the work knows that it's not. There's no shortcut to paying for good talent.
    - qeternity 2y ago
      Sure, and they will quickly discover when the quality deteriorates unacceptably. But that is no reason to stick your head in the sand and pretend there aren't alternatives.
      - nightpool 2y ago
        Or they won't discover, because they'll be 5 years gone onto the next company, and the product will slowly decay under the cost of upkeep of its technical debt and the business fail. The free market is not, in fact, perfectly frictionless. Executive decisions still matter and can make the difference between having, say, a photo sharing site that people like to use, and having one that's shut down because they can't pay to fix the legacy code.
- mattgreenrocks 2y ago
  > You are a commodity. If I am, then so are the execs. They aren't special. They just rewrite their institutional rules so it is heads they win, tails you lose.

It's fine right up until it isn't. The chance that "this time it's different" can't even be reasonably inferred from the inside. Induction from the perspective of the seasonal turkey: https://mashimo.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/bertrand-russells-inductivist-turkey/ https://mashimo.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/bertrand-russells-i...

from-nibly 2y ago
If offshore humans can't beat on shore humans what chance does AI have in the near future?
- cr125rider 2y ago
  The “paradox” (or whatever you might want to call it) with software is if I can describe the business case, with all of its side effects and outputs for unhappy paths, in enough detail, I’ve just done all the hard part of writing software. If AI can help with that last 20ish percent then great. The challenge with offshoring, and now LLMs, is that it takes as much time to describe the problem and outputs than it doesn’t to just write the dang code.
  - wakawaka28 2y ago
    It is rare to ever see a software project with all behaviors spelled out in English. I think the effort required to do that is rarely necessary, and people just write code instead. "Documentation" usually means that you wrote down how to use the thing, plus some non-obvious details.
- ben_w 2y ago
  If I could predict that, I could beat the market. Inventing the difference would be both a fun technical challenge and a way to get a terrifying lynch mob at my door. Merely knowing how far away it is would help me know how to plan early retirement (kinda already could except for being a migrant).

Buttons840 2y ago

If they commoditize us, then they will have commoditized themselves.

teaearlgraycold 2y ago
Right. By the time I’m automated we pretty much have AGI.
amusedcyclist 2y ago
Executive isn't a "job", its a status, its not a skill, its just a position in the hierarchy, so no they will not have commoditized themselves
- wakawaka28 2y ago
  Being an executive totally requires skills. Are they unique skills that only executives have? Not really. But people management and resource management in general require skills, wisdom, etc. If someone is made an executive and they don't have the required skills, they will usually blow up their project or company.
  - amusedcyclist 2y ago
    I don't doubt that an executive requires a certain temperament that lots of people don't have and that the people who become executives are generally intelligent and capable. What I'm saying is that it is not a "trade" or "profession" that has specific teachable skills, knowledge bases and responsibilities like "engineer" or "lawyer" or "plumber"
    - wakawaka28 2y ago
      There totally are specific teachable skills involved with being an executive, although they are abstract for the most part. Above all an executive should have an adequate understanding of the thing they manage. But resource management, estimation, accounting, public speaking, knowledge of relevant laws, workplace psychology, etc. are all skills that executives need and can be taught. If you meet an executive with these skills and then meet one without them, you'll know what I'm talking about. I would also say the same of sales jobs, but sales is relatively narrow.

heyoni 2y ago

Exactly. It’s always been possible to commoditize software engineering _if_ you could find the right developers overseas but the fact is we are where we are because it’s hard and almost impossible to manage. And either way, talented developers from developing countries are often brought on with visas and end up with salaries close to the industry norm. I’ve been involved with large mergers with overseas dev teams and that’s how it’s always been. At best, AI is just good documentation. This whole craze is the equivalent of saying doctors won’t be necessary because you can just google how to do x procedure.

qeternity 2y ago

[flagged]

ceejayoz 2y ago
> If management believes it can source labor at a lower cost, they have a legal fiduciary duty to do so. Only if that's the only variable, which it never is.
- nightpool 2y ago
  Exactly. Execs see the monthly spend, people actually doing the work see the long-term externalities and hidden costs. Many, many people I know would and do buy more expensive (often Made in USA but not always) products when doing so means that the products will last longer and need less maintenance. Treating labor as commodities implies that the labor is interchangeable. Everyone who's actually done the work knows that it's not. There's no shortcut to paying for good talent.
  - qeternity 2y ago
    Sure, and they will quickly discover when the quality deteriorates unacceptably. But that is no reason to stick your head in the sand and pretend there aren't alternatives.
    - nightpool 2y ago
      Or they won't discover, because they'll be 5 years gone onto the next company, and the product will slowly decay under the cost of upkeep of its technical debt and the business fail. The free market is not, in fact, perfectly frictionless. Executive decisions still matter and can make the difference between having, say, a photo sharing site that people like to use, and having one that's shut down because they can't pay to fix the legacy code.
mattgreenrocks 2y ago
> You are a commodity. If I am, then so are the execs. They aren't special. They just rewrite their institutional rules so it is heads they win, tails you lose.