3 ms·

What We Know About Hurricane Helene's Destruction So Far

6 points by dredmorbius 2y ago

dredmorbius 2y ago
Archive / paywall: <https://archive.is/CaRow https://archive.is/CaRow>
dredmorbius 2y ago
A month ago HN was discussing the lull in major storms so far during the 2024 hurricane season. As I wrote at the time, also noting that climates and storm conditions are complex systems with numerous factors: Rapidly-developing storms with access to a great deal of thermal energy and tropical moisture increase the likelihood of major storms developing rapidly with little warning and severe impacts. That's no joke to deal with. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41367512 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41367512> Helene largely matched that description, and has been[1] a major storm, landing as a category 4 (220 km/h / 140 mph winds) having intensified from tropical storm status only 28 hours before, with an immense storm area, engulfing multiple US states, dumping prodigious amounts of rain, and responsible so far for 70+ deaths and $22 billion in damages, with tallies likely to increase. The main saving grace has been that it was fast-moving at landfall minimising the worst of wind and rain damage. Its path slowed dramatically afterwards, and some of the worst damage has been reported well inland, in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, from heavy flooding. Wikipedia has a continuously updated page on the effects of Helene as well: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene> As I write this, Nullschool's Earth Weather Visualiser is showing two large storms likely to develop in the Gulf by 4 October, with another major hurricane well off in the Atlantic: <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/04/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-79.13,25.00,1499/loc=-95.927,26.020 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/04/1200Z/wind/surface/...> The most westerly of the storms eye is indicated at the time of this post, that location may shift for those viewing the forecast later. The easterly storm may well hit Florida again. Those who complained about the "alarmist" climate scientists and jouralists who "cried wolf" might take some heed. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41366911 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41366911> ________________________________ Notes: 1. I'm avoiding use of the past tense as though Helene has officially dissipated, it appears that the relic low will re-form out over the subtropical Atlantic to become a storm off the Eastern seaboard near the Chesapeake Bay, before finally dissipating for good: <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/03/0400Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-70.93,35.51,2487/loc=-68.589,36.499 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/03/0400Z/wind/surface/...>. Such "zombie storms" are being noted increasingly, with Hurricane John being another example: <https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/back-hurricane-strength-john-soaks-mexicos-pacific-coast-2024-09-26/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/back-hurricane-streng...>.
dredmorbius 2y ago
There's a slew of articles at the NYTimes on Helene. One is an interactive feature tracking the storm's destruction. As usual, that's best viewed noninteractively via Archive Today: <https://archive.is/8OODU https://archive.is/8OODU>. One location highlighted is the Unocoi County Hospital in Ewrin, TN, from which 50 people were evacuated from the roof by heliocopter after flooding. The facility opened less than six years ago: "New Unicoi County Hospital set to open in less than two weeks" (Fri, October 12th 2018) <https://wcyb.com/news/tennessee-news/new-unicoi-county-hospital-set-to-open-in-less-than-two-weeks https://wcyb.com/news/tennessee-news/new-unicoi-county-hospi...> NB: it might be best not to build your county hospital in a flood plain: Google Maps / Terrain: <https://www.google.com/maps/place/Unicoi+County+Hospital,+2030+Temple+Hill+Rd,+Erwin,+TN+37650/@36.1180049,-82.4479563,15.51z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x885a6e9b692778a3:0x9a1bf29c58c12f55!8m2!3d36.11779!4d-82.4443579!16s%2Fg%2F11f4ldr_nb!5m1!1e4?hl=en&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/place/Unicoi+County+Hospital,+20...> Or, for that matter, your US Navy Nuclear Fuel Services Inc., plant: <https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nuclear+Fuel+Services+Inc/@36.129361,-82.4378627,15.51z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x885a6e9b692778a3:0x9a1bf29c58c12f55!2sUnicoi+County+Hospital,+2030+Temple+Hill+Rd,+Erwin,+TN+37650!3b1!8m2!3d36.11779!4d-82.4443579!16s%2Fg%2F11f4ldr_nb!3m5!1s0x885a6e6023457e4d:0x472eb6906973db07!8m2!3d36.1282857!4d-82.4335403!16s%2Fg%2F1td544dd!5m1!1e4?hl=en&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nuclear+Fuel+Services+Inc/...> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Fuel_Services https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Fuel_Services> Hurricane risks, 500 km / 300 mi inland.
- dredmorbius 2y ago
  More on Unicoi Co. Hospital: "MSHA buys land for new Erwin hospital" (Jul 8, 2015) Due diligence done prior to the signing of the original contract included studies to make sure, among other things, that the site has proper access to utilities, has sufficient road access, can support the hospital and other supporting facilities, and that the actual site of the hospital is not in a flood plain. <https://www.wjhl.com/news/msha-buys-land-for-new-erwin-hospital/ https://www.wjhl.com/news/msha-buys-land-for-new-erwin-hospi...> I smell lawsuit incoming in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... Financial information is sorely lacking from any coverage I've seen. Though the above article does note that "[p]lans call for the new 20-bed hospital to be built on 45 acres located at the south end of Erwin near Exit 40 just off I-26".

6 points by dredmorbius 2y ago

Archive / paywall: <https://archive.is/CaRow https://archive.is/CaRow>

A month ago HN was discussing the lull in major storms so far during the 2024 hurricane season. As I wrote at the time, also noting that climates and storm conditions are complex systems with numerous factors: Rapidly-developing storms with access to a great deal of thermal energy and tropical moisture increase the likelihood of major storms developing rapidly with little warning and severe impacts. That's no joke to deal with. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41367512 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41367512> Helene largely matched that description, and has been[1] a major storm, landing as a category 4 (220 km/h / 140 mph winds) having intensified from tropical storm status only 28 hours before, with an immense storm area, engulfing multiple US states, dumping prodigious amounts of rain, and responsible so far for 70+ deaths and $22 billion in damages, with tallies likely to increase. The main saving grace has been that it was fast-moving at landfall minimising the worst of wind and rain damage. Its path slowed dramatically afterwards, and some of the worst damage has been reported well inland, in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, from heavy flooding. Wikipedia has a continuously updated page on the effects of Helene as well: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene> As I write this, Nullschool's Earth Weather Visualiser is showing two large storms likely to develop in the Gulf by 4 October, with another major hurricane well off in the Atlantic: <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/04/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-79.13,25.00,1499/loc=-95.927,26.020 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/04/1200Z/wind/surface/...> The most westerly of the storms eye is indicated at the time of this post, that location may shift for those viewing the forecast later. The easterly storm may well hit Florida again. Those who complained about the "alarmist" climate scientists and jouralists who "cried wolf" might take some heed. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41366911 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41366911> ________________________________ Notes: 1. I'm avoiding use of the past tense as though Helene has officially dissipated, it appears that the relic low will re-form out over the subtropical Atlantic to become a storm off the Eastern seaboard near the Chesapeake Bay, before finally dissipating for good: <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/03/0400Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-70.93,35.51,2487/loc=-68.589,36.499 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/10/03/0400Z/wind/surface/...>. Such "zombie storms" are being noted increasingly, with Hurricane John being another example: <https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/back-hurricane-strength-john-soaks-mexicos-pacific-coast-2024-09-26/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/back-hurricane-streng...>.

dredmorbius 2y ago

There's a slew of articles at the NYTimes on Helene. One is an interactive feature tracking the storm's destruction. As usual, that's best viewed noninteractively via Archive Today: <https://archive.is/8OODU https://archive.is/8OODU>. One location highlighted is the Unocoi County Hospital in Ewrin, TN, from which 50 people were evacuated from the roof by heliocopter after flooding. The facility opened less than six years ago: "New Unicoi County Hospital set to open in less than two weeks" (Fri, October 12th 2018) <https://wcyb.com/news/tennessee-news/new-unicoi-county-hospital-set-to-open-in-less-than-two-weeks https://wcyb.com/news/tennessee-news/new-unicoi-county-hospi...> NB: it might be best not to build your county hospital in a flood plain: Google Maps / Terrain: <https://www.google.com/maps/place/Unicoi+County+Hospital,+2030+Temple+Hill+Rd,+Erwin,+TN+37650/@36.1180049,-82.4479563,15.51z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x885a6e9b692778a3:0x9a1bf29c58c12f55!8m2!3d36.11779!4d-82.4443579!16s%2Fg%2F11f4ldr_nb!5m1!1e4?hl=en&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/place/Unicoi+County+Hospital,+20...> Or, for that matter, your US Navy Nuclear Fuel Services Inc., plant: <https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nuclear+Fuel+Services+Inc/@36.129361,-82.4378627,15.51z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x885a6e9b692778a3:0x9a1bf29c58c12f55!2sUnicoi+County+Hospital,+2030+Temple+Hill+Rd,+Erwin,+TN+37650!3b1!8m2!3d36.11779!4d-82.4443579!16s%2Fg%2F11f4ldr_nb!3m5!1s0x885a6e6023457e4d:0x472eb6906973db07!8m2!3d36.1282857!4d-82.4335403!16s%2Fg%2F1td544dd!5m1!1e4?hl=en&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nuclear+Fuel+Services+Inc/...> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Fuel_Services https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Fuel_Services> Hurricane risks, 500 km / 300 mi inland.

dredmorbius 2y ago
More on Unicoi Co. Hospital: "MSHA buys land for new Erwin hospital" (Jul 8, 2015) Due diligence done prior to the signing of the original contract included studies to make sure, among other things, that the site has proper access to utilities, has sufficient road access, can support the hospital and other supporting facilities, and that the actual site of the hospital is not in a flood plain. <https://www.wjhl.com/news/msha-buys-land-for-new-erwin-hospital/ https://www.wjhl.com/news/msha-buys-land-for-new-erwin-hospi...> I smell lawsuit incoming in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... Financial information is sorely lacking from any coverage I've seen. Though the above article does note that "[p]lans call for the new 20-bed hospital to be built on 45 acres located at the south end of Erwin near Exit 40 just off I-26".