6 ms·

They generated a whooping three billion dollars last year.

by Prbeek 2y ago

lolinder 2y ago
But what was the cost of producing that revenue? At what point do they expect to break even on their investment? I can very quickly generate a lot of revenue if my investors will let me buy eggs at $0.50 each and resell them for $0.05, but I don't think I'd get any bites unless I could explain how that enterprise will eventually turn a profit.
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  In 2021, SoftBank is very interested in your egg selling company.
  - stavros 2y ago
    After all, you can't make an omelet without breaking the bank on some eggs.
  - BoorishBears 2y ago
    If you can find a way to sell billions of dollars of eggs, even at a loss, people will invest. At scale you can increase the price of eggs, make the eggs cheaper, etc. Obviously the fact your eggs are artificially cheap is helping you sell them, but that won't be all there is to you as a seller. People underestimate how hard it is to sell things: you could have the cure to cancer in your hands today and still need to lose mllions to get anywhere with it.
- dylan604 2y ago
  But this is what the food delivery companies were (are?) doing. This is what Uber is doing. This is pretty much what every VC funded company does. They burn through the investors' money (because who cares it's not their personal money) until they get a foothold.
  - lolinder 2y ago
    That's what they were doing when money was free. Money is no longer free, unless you're an AI company.
  - qeternity 2y ago
    > They burn through the investors' money (because who cares its not their personal money) until they get a foothold. Otherwise known as investing. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. And the last 20 years has been chockfull of excesses absolutely. But Uber is profitable these days, and has genuinely transformed how people get around. It looked like a negative unit margin dog until it didn't.
    - 1986 2y ago
      Otherwise known as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_%28pricing_policy%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_%28pricing_policy%29
      - itsumoiru 2y ago
        This isn't quite dumping. It was more about achieving the scale necessary to make it usable. If there are no drivers, there are no customers. With no customers, who would drive?
        n_ary 2y ago
        It is indeed dumping. Scale out so big that previous competitors can't keep up, then squeeze hard shaking out other competitors(taxis/rentals) as well as your own minions(a.k.a. gig economy workers) for blood. > If there are no drivers, there are no customers. With no customers, who would drive? No worries, Waymo is coming soon to kill Uber as well as everyone Uber took out of business.
- adgjlsfhk1 2y ago
  it does seem very likely that $ per token of inference (at fixed quality) will continue to go down rapidly as hardware and software continues to improve.
- rodgerd 2y ago
  It's better than that, OpenAI are stealing the eggs and lobbying to make egg theft legal, so long as you only steal eggs from small farmers and back yards. Because they can, by their own admission, never stay in business if they have to pay for the eggs.
mikeocool 2y ago
OpenAI is expecting $3.7 billion in revenue this year, and is going to lose $5 billion, according to this article: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt... So they are currently printing 1 dollar bills at a cost of $2.35 each.
- p1necone 2y ago
  Losing money on every transaction, but making it up with scale!
  - Mistletoe 2y ago
    Cosmo Kramer: It's a write-off for them. Jerry: How is it a write-off? Cosmo Kramer: They just write it off. Jerry: Write it off what? Cosmo Kramer: Jerry, all these big companies, they write off everything. Jerry: You don't even know what a write-off is. Cosmo Kramer: Do you? Jerry: No, I don't. Cosmo Kramer: But they do. And they're the ones writing it off.
- qeternity 2y ago
  Point to one single transformative invention that was accretive from day one. The ChatGPT moment isn't even two years old. I don't know for certain whether any of these investments are going to work out, but all of the current cash burn is forward looking. It may all come crashing down, but this is not the right analysis.
  - mikeocool 2y ago
    This certainly the model that basically all VC funded tech companies use. Though OpenAI is notable, because I don’t think we’ve seen another company burn this much money this fast. Not a value statement on whether is this is right or wrong.
    - qeternity 2y ago
      This predates modern VC by centuries. Early trade routes which connected humanity across continents were highly speculative, requiring huge amounts of capital, and were only profitable years later.

They generated a whooping three billion dollars last year.

by Prbeek 2y ago

They generated a whooping three billion dollars last year.

But what was the cost of producing that revenue? At what point do they expect to break even on their investment? I can very quickly generate a lot of revenue if my investors will let me buy eggs at $0.50 each and resell them for $0.05, but I don't think I'd get any bites unless I could explain how that enterprise will eventually turn a profit.

Mistletoe 2y ago
In 2021, SoftBank is very interested in your egg selling company.
- stavros 2y ago
  After all, you can't make an omelet without breaking the bank on some eggs.
- BoorishBears 2y ago
  If you can find a way to sell billions of dollars of eggs, even at a loss, people will invest. At scale you can increase the price of eggs, make the eggs cheaper, etc. Obviously the fact your eggs are artificially cheap is helping you sell them, but that won't be all there is to you as a seller. People underestimate how hard it is to sell things: you could have the cure to cancer in your hands today and still need to lose mllions to get anywhere with it.
dylan604 2y ago
But this is what the food delivery companies were (are?) doing. This is what Uber is doing. This is pretty much what every VC funded company does. They burn through the investors' money (because who cares it's not their personal money) until they get a foothold.
- lolinder 2y ago
  That's what they were doing when money was free. Money is no longer free, unless you're an AI company.
- qeternity 2y ago
  > They burn through the investors' money (because who cares its not their personal money) until they get a foothold. Otherwise known as investing. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. And the last 20 years has been chockfull of excesses absolutely. But Uber is profitable these days, and has genuinely transformed how people get around. It looked like a negative unit margin dog until it didn't.
  - 1986 2y ago
    Otherwise known as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_%28pricing_policy%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_%28pricing_policy%29
    - itsumoiru 2y ago
      This isn't quite dumping. It was more about achieving the scale necessary to make it usable. If there are no drivers, there are no customers. With no customers, who would drive?
      - n_ary 2y ago
        It is indeed dumping. Scale out so big that previous competitors can't keep up, then squeeze hard shaking out other competitors(taxis/rentals) as well as your own minions(a.k.a. gig economy workers) for blood. > If there are no drivers, there are no customers. With no customers, who would drive? No worries, Waymo is coming soon to kill Uber as well as everyone Uber took out of business.
adgjlsfhk1 2y ago
it does seem very likely that $ per token of inference (at fixed quality) will continue to go down rapidly as hardware and software continues to improve.
rodgerd 2y ago
It's better than that, OpenAI are stealing the eggs and lobbying to make egg theft legal, so long as you only steal eggs from small farmers and back yards. Because they can, by their own admission, never stay in business if they have to pay for the eggs.

mikeocool 2y ago

OpenAI is expecting $3.7 billion in revenue this year, and is going to lose $5 billion, according to this article: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt... So they are currently printing 1 dollar bills at a cost of $2.35 each.

p1necone 2y ago
Losing money on every transaction, but making it up with scale!
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  Cosmo Kramer: It's a write-off for them. Jerry: How is it a write-off? Cosmo Kramer: They just write it off. Jerry: Write it off what? Cosmo Kramer: Jerry, all these big companies, they write off everything. Jerry: You don't even know what a write-off is. Cosmo Kramer: Do you? Jerry: No, I don't. Cosmo Kramer: But they do. And they're the ones writing it off.
qeternity 2y ago
Point to one single transformative invention that was accretive from day one. The ChatGPT moment isn't even two years old. I don't know for certain whether any of these investments are going to work out, but all of the current cash burn is forward looking. It may all come crashing down, but this is not the right analysis.
- mikeocool 2y ago
  This certainly the model that basically all VC funded tech companies use. Though OpenAI is notable, because I don’t think we’ve seen another company burn this much money this fast. Not a value statement on whether is this is right or wrong.
  - qeternity 2y ago
    This predates modern VC by centuries. Early trade routes which connected humanity across continents were highly speculative, requiring huge amounts of capital, and were only profitable years later.