3 ms·

The OG strain was much less transmissible than D614G or Delta/Omicron. Most transmission chains died out and R0 was < 1. That was offset by superspreaders (or

The OG strain was much less transmissible than D614G or Delta/Omicron. Most transmission chains died out and R0 was < 1. That was offset by superspreaders (or superspreading events) where one person could infect dozens of people. Typically, this happened with prolonged (1+ hour) contact with someone that was projecting their voice (restaurants, choir practice). There were documented cases of much more casual contact producing transmission, but this wasn't common. Later variants were more inherently transmissible, but it has never reached the level that you suggest. And all that is needed for a pandemic like SARS-CoV-2 is for an R0 of around 2-3, so one person infecting 2-3 others, on average. If we really have a cluster of 6 health care workers, that is enough to get extremely alarmed.

worstspotgain 2y ago
It's true that Covid superspreading was a thing, but the R0 for WT was 2.66 [1], which is >> 1 even without superspreaders. Heck, Rt was often > 1 during lockdowns in Europe and the US when there were zero superspreading events. It took an unprecedented 12-week lockdown to put it out in Wuhan/Hubei. One person per household was only allowed to leave the house once every two days. [2] It's also true that Omicron required much less contact to spread. Instead of being in the room for 2 minutes like in my WT example, 10 or 20 seconds might be enough. [3] I do agree that what we know about H5N1 is plenty enough to be alarmed. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/
- lamontcg 2y ago
  > the R0 for WT was 2.66 That number includes superspreading events which inflates it.

worstspotgain 2y ago

It's true that Covid superspreading was a thing, but the R0 for WT was 2.66 [1], which is >> 1 even without superspreaders. Heck, Rt was often > 1 during lockdowns in Europe and the US when there were zero superspreading events. It took an unprecedented 12-week lockdown to put it out in Wuhan/Hubei. One person per household was only allowed to leave the house once every two days. [2] It's also true that Omicron required much less contact to spread. Instead of being in the room for 2 minutes like in my WT example, 10 or 20 seconds might be enough. [3] I do agree that what we know about H5N1 is plenty enough to be alarmed. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/

lamontcg 2y ago
> the R0 for WT was 2.66 That number includes superspreading events which inflates it.