4 ms·

If indeed it's human-to-human transmission, it doesn't mean it's likely to be as transmissible as Covid, or even other flu strains. What really set Sars-CoV-2 a

If indeed it's human-to-human transmission, it doesn't mean it's likely to be as transmissible as Covid, or even other flu strains. What really set Sars-CoV-2 apart was its high transmissibility right off the bat. The most important thing is tracing and isolating the carriers before it spreads, and before it's had a chance to evolve and become more transmissible yet. Influenza in general is one of the hardest pathogens to contain.

radlad 2y ago
> To date a total of seven people who were in contact with the confirmed case have been identified as having been ill — a household member and six health care workers. One of the health workers tested negative for influenza when he or she was ill. If all cases of illness are from the flu, that sounds pretty transmissable to me.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  We know they were in contact, but we don't know the extent of the contact. Did they just walk into the room once and leave after 2 minutes? In early 2020 in Wuhan that would have been enough.
  - lamontcg 2y ago
    The OG strain was much less transmissible than D614G or Delta/Omicron. Most transmission chains died out and R0 was < 1. That was offset by superspreaders (or superspreading events) where one person could infect dozens of people. Typically, this happened with prolonged (1+ hour) contact with someone that was projecting their voice (restaurants, choir practice). There were documented cases of much more casual contact producing transmission, but this wasn't common. Later variants were more inherently transmissible, but it has never reached the level that you suggest. And all that is needed for a pandemic like SARS-CoV-2 is for an R0 of around 2-3, so one person infecting 2-3 others, on average. If we really have a cluster of 6 health care workers, that is enough to get extremely alarmed.
    - worstspotgain 2y ago
      It's true that Covid superspreading was a thing, but the R0 for WT was 2.66 [1], which is >> 1 even without superspreaders. Heck, Rt was often > 1 during lockdowns in Europe and the US when there were zero superspreading events. It took an unprecedented 12-week lockdown to put it out in Wuhan/Hubei. One person per household was only allowed to leave the house once every two days. [2] It's also true that Omicron required much less contact to spread. Instead of being in the room for 2 minutes like in my WT example, 10 or 20 seconds might be enough. [3] I do agree that what we know about H5N1 is plenty enough to be alarmed. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/
      - lamontcg 2y ago
        > the R0 for WT was 2.66 That number includes superspreading events which inflates it.
akdor1154 2y ago
> What really set Sars-CoV-2 apart was its high transmissibility right off the bat. ...
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  Pun unintended. Freudian slip? OK, right off the Pangolin then.
  - _heimdall 2y ago
    [flagged]
  - SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
    [flagged]
knowitnone 2y ago
4 infected trained professionals from a bit of contact by is high

radlad 2y ago

> To date a total of seven people who were in contact with the confirmed case have been identified as having been ill — a household member and six health care workers. One of the health workers tested negative for influenza when he or she was ill. If all cases of illness are from the flu, that sounds pretty transmissable to me.

worstspotgain 2y ago
We know they were in contact, but we don't know the extent of the contact. Did they just walk into the room once and leave after 2 minutes? In early 2020 in Wuhan that would have been enough.
- lamontcg 2y ago
  The OG strain was much less transmissible than D614G or Delta/Omicron. Most transmission chains died out and R0 was < 1. That was offset by superspreaders (or superspreading events) where one person could infect dozens of people. Typically, this happened with prolonged (1+ hour) contact with someone that was projecting their voice (restaurants, choir practice). There were documented cases of much more casual contact producing transmission, but this wasn't common. Later variants were more inherently transmissible, but it has never reached the level that you suggest. And all that is needed for a pandemic like SARS-CoV-2 is for an R0 of around 2-3, so one person infecting 2-3 others, on average. If we really have a cluster of 6 health care workers, that is enough to get extremely alarmed.
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    It's true that Covid superspreading was a thing, but the R0 for WT was 2.66 [1], which is >> 1 even without superspreaders. Heck, Rt was often > 1 during lockdowns in Europe and the US when there were zero superspreading events. It took an unprecedented 12-week lockdown to put it out in Wuhan/Hubei. One person per household was only allowed to leave the house once every two days. [2] It's also true that Omicron required much less contact to spread. Instead of being in the room for 2 minutes like in my WT example, 10 or 20 seconds might be enough. [3] I do agree that what we know about H5N1 is plenty enough to be alarmed. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9517346/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9713573/
    - lamontcg 2y ago
      > the R0 for WT was 2.66 That number includes superspreading events which inflates it.

akdor1154 2y ago

> What really set Sars-CoV-2 apart was its high transmissibility right off the bat. ...

worstspotgain 2y ago
Pun unintended. Freudian slip? OK, right off the Pangolin then.
- _heimdall 2y ago
  [flagged]
- SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
  [flagged]

knowitnone 2y ago

4 infected trained professionals from a bit of contact by is high