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> Another poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, which was cofounded by former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson,
by chiefalchemist 2y ago
> Another poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, which was cofounded by former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, found that Harris is 7 points ahead of Trump in a head-to-head matchup, on 52 percent to his 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,005 likely voters between September 23 and 25.
1) Is 1000 likely voters enough?
2) It's funny how there's no mention of The Economist's track record on such things.
3) Along the same lines there's no mention of magin for error / level in confidence in this *prediction*. Oops I mean projection.
4) While there are plenty who are "out" (so to speak about supporting DJT), there are still those who are not so open. How do these polls account for these people?
- Mistletoe 2y ago1) https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1b8uc5p/eli5_how_is_it_that_in_the_ussurveys_of_1000_are/ https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1b8uc5p/...
- bushbaba 2y agoIs this a popular vote or electoral college polling. Popular vote doesn’t win elections
- cthalupa 2y agoMany polls focus on specific states to determine EV allocations, yes. The Economist's model does take into account state level polls.
- cthalupa 2y ago1) Yes 2) The Economist's prior election models are still on their site, so you can judge for yourself. They don't have a huge history - 2020 was the first year they did a full model, I believe. 3) The level of confidence is basically the 3 in 5, etc. https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/how-this-works https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/predi... 4) Are you talking about the poll or the economist model? You're going back and forth here. If it's the economist's model, polls are only one input and they try to balance it against other historically accurate indicators, see above. If you mean the poll, it depends entirely on the specific pollster The article is also out of date on Silver's model, fwiw. He now has Harris at a 58% chance to win the EV, after having had Trump as the winner there for basically the entire race.