4 ms·

Wait, he wants his open product to be like a utility with low profits for maximized reach? Or he wants his suppliers to be a regulated utility while he sells 1

by kurthr 2y ago

Wait, he wants his open product to be like a utility with low profits for maximized reach? Or he wants his suppliers to be a regulated utility while he sells 100% margin products on top of it? Or he wants all the greater fools now wherever they are so he can get out before the collapse? It feels like this is a case of following the money to understand the real goals, since it's unclear to me that AGI is that goal.

ben_w 2y ago
> it's unclear to me that AGI is that goal. Ironically, much of the observed behaviour is instrumentally convergent for most of the suggested ultimate goals. Trying to make a safe and aligned AGI or a statutory government monopoly would both get about half the things we've seen. The other half is stuff which is collectively mutually exclusive on all goals, but humans aren't perfect logical spheres in a vacuum, so it could still be basically any of them.
krapp 2y ago
The goal is to be the man who stands at the right hand of God, holding the keys to the kingdom.
- riehwvfbk 2y ago
  The sales pitch for the investors, of course, is that they will get to be God in this picture.
  - krapp 2y ago
    No, the AI is God. Investors just need to pay in to be one of the saints.
    - lupire 2y ago
      Saints don't profit. Priests do.
- kylehotchkiss 2y ago
  yeah the whole fixation on "superintellegence" really feels like the a modern telling of Tower of Babel. Except this time we won't end up with a lot of different languages or whatever. at this point, the lofty goals are a distraction from celebrating the utility of what we have, incremental upgrades, and reduced resource usage.
  - exe34 2y ago
    this time the tower speaks all languages.
dogcomplex 2y ago
Yes. >Or he wants his suppliers to be a regulated utility while he sells 100% margin products on top of it? Near term yep - soon as regulatory capture drops. They'll make out like bandits. >Or he wants all the greater fools now wherever they are so he can get out before the collapse? Then this, by the time competition catches up anyway because there are no real moats here besides regulation >Wait, he wants his open product to be like a utility with low profits for maximized reach? Then this is what remains, in a sea of other providers. Financially? Pump and Dump, baby. Though I reckon the end result will still be intelligence flowing like water.
- auggierose 2y ago
  Intelligence flowing like water reminds me of the computer in rollerball.
  - cpeterso 2y ago
    Scene: https://youtu.be/QjYvdURv3Zw?t=219 https://youtu.be/QjYvdURv3Zw?t=219
dotancohen 2y ago
> As the availability of electricity became more widespread, people found better ways of using it. It's actually a nice analogy.
- mrbungie 2y ago
  The level of hubris when comparing something that brings literal physical light to something that is not even public or reproducible.
  - dotancohen 2y ago
    When electricity was first brought to people's homes, it wasn't something that could be easily produced in the home either. This is an analogy, not a formula. And a great aspiration for a company that until recently was at the forefront of its industry.
    - mrbungie 2y ago
      It is not a good analogy for LLMs and the infrastructure that is needed for running them, not by an inch. The variability of scale is not there, according to OAI we need massive piles of resources for allowing innovation by common people (i.e. scale it, make it an utility and then wait for emergent use cases). Electricity didn't need the scale sama is asking for thriving as a tech (obviously eventually it did explode in use cases with enough scale, but that's not my point). Scientists used to make electromagnetism experiment demonstrations in Academies with equipment that was not that expensive nor inaccesible for the time. You can even produce enough electricity with a potato to light a bulb. A better technology for this analogy would be promoting on-device/on-site open SLMs, but that's not what OAI promotes, is it?
      - jononor 2y ago
        You can train a tiny LLM and do experiments on it and demonstrations with your lapop. It is about as accessible as electricity generating potatoes.
      - 2y ago
skywhopper 2y ago
All he wants is to find ways to keep propping up the unsustainable and insatiable beast he’s bullied into existence. The promise of AGI is one-half threat and one-half desperate hope, because there’s no other way to keep the bubble growing without government resources.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

by kurthr 2y ago

ben_w 2y ago

> it's unclear to me that AGI is that goal. Ironically, much of the observed behaviour is instrumentally convergent for most of the suggested ultimate goals. Trying to make a safe and aligned AGI or a statutory government monopoly would both get about half the things we've seen. The other half is stuff which is collectively mutually exclusive on all goals, but humans aren't perfect logical spheres in a vacuum, so it could still be basically any of them.

krapp 2y ago

The goal is to be the man who stands at the right hand of God, holding the keys to the kingdom.

riehwvfbk 2y ago
The sales pitch for the investors, of course, is that they will get to be God in this picture.
- krapp 2y ago
  No, the AI is God. Investors just need to pay in to be one of the saints.
  - lupire 2y ago
    Saints don't profit. Priests do.
kylehotchkiss 2y ago
yeah the whole fixation on "superintellegence" really feels like the a modern telling of Tower of Babel. Except this time we won't end up with a lot of different languages or whatever. at this point, the lofty goals are a distraction from celebrating the utility of what we have, incremental upgrades, and reduced resource usage.
- exe34 2y ago
  this time the tower speaks all languages.

dogcomplex 2y ago

Yes. >Or he wants his suppliers to be a regulated utility while he sells 100% margin products on top of it? Near term yep - soon as regulatory capture drops. They'll make out like bandits. >Or he wants all the greater fools now wherever they are so he can get out before the collapse? Then this, by the time competition catches up anyway because there are no real moats here besides regulation >Wait, he wants his open product to be like a utility with low profits for maximized reach? Then this is what remains, in a sea of other providers. Financially? Pump and Dump, baby. Though I reckon the end result will still be intelligence flowing like water.

auggierose 2y ago
Intelligence flowing like water reminds me of the computer in rollerball.
- cpeterso 2y ago
  Scene: https://youtu.be/QjYvdURv3Zw?t=219 https://youtu.be/QjYvdURv3Zw?t=219

dotancohen 2y ago

> As the availability of electricity became more widespread, people found better ways of using it. It's actually a nice analogy.

mrbungie 2y ago
The level of hubris when comparing something that brings literal physical light to something that is not even public or reproducible.
- dotancohen 2y ago
  When electricity was first brought to people's homes, it wasn't something that could be easily produced in the home either. This is an analogy, not a formula. And a great aspiration for a company that until recently was at the forefront of its industry.
  - mrbungie 2y ago
    It is not a good analogy for LLMs and the infrastructure that is needed for running them, not by an inch. The variability of scale is not there, according to OAI we need massive piles of resources for allowing innovation by common people (i.e. scale it, make it an utility and then wait for emergent use cases). Electricity didn't need the scale sama is asking for thriving as a tech (obviously eventually it did explode in use cases with enough scale, but that's not my point). Scientists used to make electromagnetism experiment demonstrations in Academies with equipment that was not that expensive nor inaccesible for the time. You can even produce enough electricity with a potato to light a bulb. A better technology for this analogy would be promoting on-device/on-site open SLMs, but that's not what OAI promotes, is it?
    - jononor 2y ago
      You can train a tiny LLM and do experiments on it and demonstrations with your lapop. It is about as accessible as electricity generating potatoes.
    - 2y ago

skywhopper 2y ago

All he wants is to find ways to keep propping up the unsustainable and insatiable beast he’s bullied into existence. The promise of AGI is one-half threat and one-half desperate hope, because there’s no other way to keep the bubble growing without government resources.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]