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I'm getting a little tired of articles making claims about the rate of technological progress (arguing either that it's speeding up or slowing down) that don't

by roc 14y ago

I'm getting a little tired of articles making claims about the rate of technological progress (arguing either that it's speeding up or slowing down) that don't set any objective qualifications for where we should measure a given innovation as falling on the timeline. Every science mentioned in this article has been the product of decades of research. All have some practical applications already in progress. All have more promising applications on the horizon. But if you provide no measurements or qualifications from which we can judge to which decade they belong, you can simply drop goalposts where-ever you like to make any argument you like.

stretchwithme 14y ago
The only thing that is clear is that we are 10 years closer to any given nirvanic innovation than we were ten years ago. :-) The biggest thing happening how much easier and faster it is to share information. The full impact of that is probably not yet apparent.
- drumdance 14y ago
  Alternatively, we are 10 years further away because we only just now understand how hard a given problem domain is. I'm looking at you, strong AI. :-)
  - stretchwithme 14y ago
    unless part of learning how to do something is learning how difficult it is. You don't obtain a degree in a difficult field and then feel you are further behind because you understand the challenges better. But yeah, the perception of how far we have to go works that way.
RaviSParikh 14y ago
Agreed. This article, and those like it, essentially support their thesis with a bunch of examples, which doesn't really measure or prove anything. I can think of a number of circumstantial arguments that would indicate technological progress is growing. For example, that world population is at an all-time high, and therefore most likely more people are working on research than ever before. However this doesn't actually prove anything either.

by roc 14y ago

stretchwithme 14y ago

The only thing that is clear is that we are 10 years closer to any given nirvanic innovation than we were ten years ago. :-) The biggest thing happening how much easier and faster it is to share information. The full impact of that is probably not yet apparent.

drumdance 14y ago
Alternatively, we are 10 years further away because we only just now understand how hard a given problem domain is. I'm looking at you, strong AI. :-)
- stretchwithme 14y ago
  unless part of learning how to do something is learning how difficult it is. You don't obtain a degree in a difficult field and then feel you are further behind because you understand the challenges better. But yeah, the perception of how far we have to go works that way.

RaviSParikh 14y ago

Agreed. This article, and those like it, essentially support their thesis with a bunch of examples, which doesn't really measure or prove anything. I can think of a number of circumstantial arguments that would indicate technological progress is growing. For example, that world population is at an all-time high, and therefore most likely more people are working on research than ever before. However this doesn't actually prove anything either.