5 ms·

Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back. Or even AI a couple of years back, remember Watson? The hype cycle was faster to close that time.

sixQuarks 2y ago
I see you haven’t tried the latest FSD build from Tesla.
- driverdan 2y ago
  The one that keeps making major, scary mistakes?
  - sixQuarks 2y ago
    Hasn’t made any major mistakes for me. It’s not perfect of course, but still
autoconfig 2y ago
When you do something that is extraordinarily hard, sometimes it takes longer than you expect. But now we're here: https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/20/waymo-is-now-giving-100000-robotaxi-rides-week/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/20/waymo-is-now-giving-100000...
- bamboozled 2y ago
  To be fair, is waymo "only" AI? I'm guessing it's a composite of GPS (car on a rail), some high detailed mapping, and then yes, some "AI" involved in recognition and decision making of course but the car isn't an AGI so to speak? Like it wouldn't know how to change a tyre or fix the engine or drive some where the mapping data isn't yet available ?
  - autoconfig 2y ago
    Where did I say that it's AGI? I was addressing the parent's comment: > "Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back". I don't think any reasonable interpretation of "autonomous vehicle" includes the ability to change a tyre. My point is that sometimes hype becomes reality. It might just take a little longer than expected.
    - bamboozled 2y ago
      Ok maybe I just never saw the hype, just another engineering and data challenge that was going to be solved one way or another.
Jach 2y ago
IBM Watson was more than a couple years back. The Jeopardy event was in 2011. It's currently 2024. As for cars, I don't know what you're referring to specifically, and the hype is still ongoing as far as I can tell. It has taken 10+ years to get to present day, from the start of the "deep learning revolution" around 2010. I vaguely recall Uber promising self-driving pickups somewhere around 8-10 years ago. A main difference between current AI systems and the systems behind the cyclical hype cycles ongoing since the 1950s is that these systems are actually delivering impressive and useful results, increasingly so, to a much larger amount of people. Waymo alone services tens of thousands of autonomous rides per month (edit: see sibling comment, I was out of date, it's currently hundreds of thousands of rides per month -- but see, increasingly), and LLMs are waaaaay beyond the grandparent's flippant characterization of "plausible-looking but incorrect sentences". That's markov chains territory.
- aithrowawaycomm 2y ago
  > Waymo alone services tens of thousands of autonomous rides per month (edit: see sibling comment, I was out of date, it's currently hundreds of thousands of rides per month -- but see, increasingly) But they aren't particularly autonomous, there's a fleet of humans watching the Waymos carefully and frequently intervening for the case where every 10-20 miles or so the system makes a stupid decision that needs human intervention: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/03/technology/zoox-self-driving-cars-remote-control.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/03/technology/zo... I think Waymo only releases the "critical" intervention rate, which is quite low. But for Cruise the non-critical interventions was every 5 miles and I suspect Waymos are similar. It appears that Waymos are way too easily confused and left to their own devices make awful decisions about passing emergency vehicles, etc. Which is in fact consistent with what self-driving skeptics were saying all the way back in 2010: deep learning could get you 95% of the way there but it will take many decades - probably centuries! - before we actually have real self-driving cars. The remote human operators will work for robotaxis and buses but not for Teslas. (Not to mention the problems that will start when robotaxis get old and in need of automotive maintenance, but the system didn't have any transmission problem scenarios in its training data. At no time in my life has my human intelligence been more taxed than when I had a tire blowout on the interstate while driving an overloaded truck.)

sixQuarks 2y ago

I see you haven’t tried the latest FSD build from Tesla.

driverdan 2y ago
The one that keeps making major, scary mistakes?
- sixQuarks 2y ago
  Hasn’t made any major mistakes for me. It’s not perfect of course, but still

autoconfig 2y ago

When you do something that is extraordinarily hard, sometimes it takes longer than you expect. But now we're here: https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/20/waymo-is-now-giving-100000-robotaxi-rides-week/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/20/waymo-is-now-giving-100000...

bamboozled 2y ago
To be fair, is waymo "only" AI? I'm guessing it's a composite of GPS (car on a rail), some high detailed mapping, and then yes, some "AI" involved in recognition and decision making of course but the car isn't an AGI so to speak? Like it wouldn't know how to change a tyre or fix the engine or drive some where the mapping data isn't yet available ?
- autoconfig 2y ago
  Where did I say that it's AGI? I was addressing the parent's comment: > "Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back". I don't think any reasonable interpretation of "autonomous vehicle" includes the ability to change a tyre. My point is that sometimes hype becomes reality. It might just take a little longer than expected.
  - bamboozled 2y ago
    Ok maybe I just never saw the hype, just another engineering and data challenge that was going to be solved one way or another.

Jach 2y ago

IBM Watson was more than a couple years back. The Jeopardy event was in 2011. It's currently 2024. As for cars, I don't know what you're referring to specifically, and the hype is still ongoing as far as I can tell. It has taken 10+ years to get to present day, from the start of the "deep learning revolution" around 2010. I vaguely recall Uber promising self-driving pickups somewhere around 8-10 years ago. A main difference between current AI systems and the systems behind the cyclical hype cycles ongoing since the 1950s is that these systems are actually delivering impressive and useful results, increasingly so, to a much larger amount of people. Waymo alone services tens of thousands of autonomous rides per month (edit: see sibling comment, I was out of date, it's currently hundreds of thousands of rides per month -- but see, increasingly), and LLMs are waaaaay beyond the grandparent's flippant characterization of "plausible-looking but incorrect sentences". That's markov chains territory.

aithrowawaycomm 2y ago
> Waymo alone services tens of thousands of autonomous rides per month (edit: see sibling comment, I was out of date, it's currently hundreds of thousands of rides per month -- but see, increasingly) But they aren't particularly autonomous, there's a fleet of humans watching the Waymos carefully and frequently intervening for the case where every 10-20 miles or so the system makes a stupid decision that needs human intervention: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/03/technology/zoox-self-driving-cars-remote-control.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/03/technology/zo... I think Waymo only releases the "critical" intervention rate, which is quite low. But for Cruise the non-critical interventions was every 5 miles and I suspect Waymos are similar. It appears that Waymos are way too easily confused and left to their own devices make awful decisions about passing emergency vehicles, etc. Which is in fact consistent with what self-driving skeptics were saying all the way back in 2010: deep learning could get you 95% of the way there but it will take many decades - probably centuries! - before we actually have real self-driving cars. The remote human operators will work for robotaxis and buses but not for Teslas. (Not to mention the problems that will start when robotaxis get old and in need of automotive maintenance, but the system didn't have any transmission problem scenarios in its training data. At no time in my life has my human intelligence been more taxed than when I had a tire blowout on the interstate while driving an overloaded truck.)