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He may have the last laugh. His traveling around the world and threatening to build fabs in the UAE and Taiwan is a diplomatic scheme to get the U.S. hawks into

He may have the last laugh. His traveling around the world and threatening to build fabs in the UAE and Taiwan is a diplomatic scheme to get the U.S. hawks into action. And lo and behold, ClopenAI has already hired CHIPS act people: "To bolster its efforts, OpenAI has hired Chris Lehane, a Clinton White House lawyer, as its vice president of global policy, along with two people from the Commerce Department who worked on the CHIPS Act, a bipartisan law designed to increase domestic chip manufacturing. One of them will manage future infrastructure projects and policy." We'll build plants overseas if you don't give us CHIPS Act money is a great scheme.

CharlieDigital 2y ago
> Build fabs Such a misguided take. If it were that easy to build fabs to compete with TSMC, Intel would do it. China would do it. Hardware is way harder than software.
- iphoneisbetter 2y ago
  Or maybe, just maybe, TSMC has gaslit all of us to think it is much harder than it really is. If Taiwan isn't needed for its chips, what is the strategic interest of the USG?
  - osnium123 2y ago
    No, TSMC is really that special. Intel has been struggling for a while now.
  - jsheard 2y ago
    It's not like nobody is trying to compete with TSMC, Samsung and Intel are doing their best, but TSMC are consistently ahead despite all of these companies using the same ASML lithography machines.
    - iphoneisbetter 2y ago
      Good point. However my mind is drawn back to the fact that the USG licenses the patents to ASML. A tweak or change of that licensing model could suddenly make TSMC's cost basis rise and Intel's drop. We are after all talking about US national security interests as the backdrop - the usual market rules may not apply so cleanly.
  - EraYaN 2y ago
    TSMC has way to many competitors for this to make sense. And besides one very important key supplier who has huge wait lists for their EUV stuff, ASML.
    - CharlieDigital 2y ago
      Sometimes the evidence speaks for itself. I'm not an expert in this field, but the fact that literally no one in the world can compete toe to toe with TSMC is a sign of ... something. If nothing else, "Taiwan #1".
- klhah 2y ago
  Threatening to build fabs is not addressed at you but designed to trigger idiot politicians with influence to unlock CHIPS money. The politicians do not know or care if building fabs is possible.
  - CharlieDigital 2y ago
    US is already throwing CHIPS dollars at Intel whose latest chips are made by...TSMC https://www.pcworld.com/article/2355435/intels-lunar-lake-is-actually-made-at-tsmc.html https://www.pcworld.com/article/2355435/intels-lunar-lake-is...
    - KK7NIL 2y ago
      1) the CHIPS money Intel received is going to the Foundry, not the products group; 2) that's not Intel's latest chips, these are: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/processors/xeon/xeon6-product-brief.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/pro... https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/processors/ai-accelerators/gaudi3.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/pro... One fully made by Intel Foundry, the other with at least some considerable TSMC parts (which isn't unexpected for the market segment it's in and the fact it was allegedly designed by Habana before it was bought out).
      - CharlieDigital 2y ago
        Right from Wiki my friend Lunar Lake is the codename for Core Ultra Series 2 mobile processors designed by Intel, released on September 24, 2024. Manufactured by: TSMC https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Lake https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Lake It's September 27 round abouts here so I'm not sure it gets more recent than that.
        KK7NIL 2y ago
        1) Funny how you didn't address my first point which completely disproves your lie about Intel sending CHIPS money to TSMC. 2) It does get more recent than that: Granite Rapids (Xeon 6 built fully on Intel processes) and Gaudi 3 (TSMC built) were announced on the 24th and will be released later this year. Maybe you shouldn't get so sassy when discussing things you know very little about.
- mrweasel 2y ago
  Which is also why it made good sense for TSMC to dismiss Altman. Some software/crypto/podcast/AI-hype bro shows up and asks for 36 fabs to be build, with no plan for monetizing them. Intel is struggling with their fab business as is, it's a difficult business to be in. Asking for 36 fabs, worth 7 trillion dollars is just absurd. Even if TSMC got the money up front, they'd still be holding those fabs and paying for their upkeep or dismantlement when/if OpenAIs predictions turn out to be wrong. It's just an insane risk to take on.
alephnerd 2y ago
> We'll build plants overseas if you don't give us CHIPS Act money is a great scheme The CHIPS act has provisions to help fund fabs in allies. This is why Biden and Modi announced a Feb dedicated to US and Indian defense systems [0] at the QUAD summit as well as as the designation of the UAE as a "Major Defence Partner" along with India [1] which includes tech transfer conditions. A significant portion of the CHIPS and IRA is set aside to help with subsidizing international allies tech and innovation ecosystems in order to ensure they don't lean towards China [2] [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/biden-modi-announce-plans-for-new-semiconductor-plant-in-india?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/biden-mod... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-plans-raise-gaza-ceasefire-deal-meetings-with-uae-leader-2024-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-plans-raise-gaza-cea... [2] - https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/agile-alliances/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/agile-alliances/
- Prbeek 2y ago
  These designations are nothing but schemes to lock in major weapon buyers into the US MIC ecosystem.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Partially, but defense is the biggest buyer for electronics - which is why the CHIPS Act and "Supply Chain Security" became a thing. For a number of commodity components, there was a heavy reliance on China due to low margins. Now there is a push to move those portions of the supply chain away to other partners.
deleted 2y ago
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CharlieDigital 2y ago

> Build fabs Such a misguided take. If it were that easy to build fabs to compete with TSMC, Intel would do it. China would do it. Hardware is way harder than software.

iphoneisbetter 2y ago
Or maybe, just maybe, TSMC has gaslit all of us to think it is much harder than it really is. If Taiwan isn't needed for its chips, what is the strategic interest of the USG?
- osnium123 2y ago
  No, TSMC is really that special. Intel has been struggling for a while now.
- jsheard 2y ago
  It's not like nobody is trying to compete with TSMC, Samsung and Intel are doing their best, but TSMC are consistently ahead despite all of these companies using the same ASML lithography machines.
  - iphoneisbetter 2y ago
    Good point. However my mind is drawn back to the fact that the USG licenses the patents to ASML. A tweak or change of that licensing model could suddenly make TSMC's cost basis rise and Intel's drop. We are after all talking about US national security interests as the backdrop - the usual market rules may not apply so cleanly.
- EraYaN 2y ago
  TSMC has way to many competitors for this to make sense. And besides one very important key supplier who has huge wait lists for their EUV stuff, ASML.
  - CharlieDigital 2y ago
    Sometimes the evidence speaks for itself. I'm not an expert in this field, but the fact that literally no one in the world can compete toe to toe with TSMC is a sign of ... something. If nothing else, "Taiwan #1".
klhah 2y ago
Threatening to build fabs is not addressed at you but designed to trigger idiot politicians with influence to unlock CHIPS money. The politicians do not know or care if building fabs is possible.
- CharlieDigital 2y ago
  US is already throwing CHIPS dollars at Intel whose latest chips are made by...TSMC https://www.pcworld.com/article/2355435/intels-lunar-lake-is-actually-made-at-tsmc.html https://www.pcworld.com/article/2355435/intels-lunar-lake-is...
  - KK7NIL 2y ago
    1) the CHIPS money Intel received is going to the Foundry, not the products group; 2) that's not Intel's latest chips, these are: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/processors/xeon/xeon6-product-brief.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/pro... https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/processors/ai-accelerators/gaudi3.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/details/pro... One fully made by Intel Foundry, the other with at least some considerable TSMC parts (which isn't unexpected for the market segment it's in and the fact it was allegedly designed by Habana before it was bought out).
    - CharlieDigital 2y ago
      Right from Wiki my friend Lunar Lake is the codename for Core Ultra Series 2 mobile processors designed by Intel, released on September 24, 2024. Manufactured by: TSMC https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Lake https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Lake It's September 27 round abouts here so I'm not sure it gets more recent than that.
      - KK7NIL 2y ago
        1) Funny how you didn't address my first point which completely disproves your lie about Intel sending CHIPS money to TSMC. 2) It does get more recent than that: Granite Rapids (Xeon 6 built fully on Intel processes) and Gaudi 3 (TSMC built) were announced on the 24th and will be released later this year. Maybe you shouldn't get so sassy when discussing things you know very little about.
mrweasel 2y ago
Which is also why it made good sense for TSMC to dismiss Altman. Some software/crypto/podcast/AI-hype bro shows up and asks for 36 fabs to be build, with no plan for monetizing them. Intel is struggling with their fab business as is, it's a difficult business to be in. Asking for 36 fabs, worth 7 trillion dollars is just absurd. Even if TSMC got the money up front, they'd still be holding those fabs and paying for their upkeep or dismantlement when/if OpenAIs predictions turn out to be wrong. It's just an insane risk to take on.

alephnerd 2y ago

> We'll build plants overseas if you don't give us CHIPS Act money is a great scheme The CHIPS act has provisions to help fund fabs in allies. This is why Biden and Modi announced a Feb dedicated to US and Indian defense systems [0] at the QUAD summit as well as as the designation of the UAE as a "Major Defence Partner" along with India [1] which includes tech transfer conditions. A significant portion of the CHIPS and IRA is set aside to help with subsidizing international allies tech and innovation ecosystems in order to ensure they don't lean towards China [2] [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/biden-modi-announce-plans-for-new-semiconductor-plant-in-india?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/biden-mod... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-plans-raise-gaza-ceasefire-deal-meetings-with-uae-leader-2024-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-plans-raise-gaza-cea... [2] - https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/agile-alliances/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/agile-alliances/

Prbeek 2y ago
These designations are nothing but schemes to lock in major weapon buyers into the US MIC ecosystem.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Partially, but defense is the biggest buyer for electronics - which is why the CHIPS Act and "Supply Chain Security" became a thing. For a number of commodity components, there was a heavy reliance on China due to low margins. Now there is a push to move those portions of the supply chain away to other partners.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]