4 ms·

>One of the big surprises out of the Ukraine war is that the US isn't in a position where it can easily bully Russia. The US hasn't been fighting Russia - if t

>One of the big surprises out of the Ukraine war is that the US isn't in a position where it can easily bully Russia. The US hasn't been fighting Russia - if they'd deployed F35s in 2022 then Moscow would be called West Alaska by now. Don't conflate "doesn't" with "can't".

roenxi 2y ago
But if they "doesn't" fight Russia now, why are they going to fight China in the future? Pretty good odds they won't because the cost is too high. What we appear to be seeing is they don't really have a lot of tools that can be used against an uncooperative nuclear-armed power; and many of those tools would probably fail against China.
- bluGill 2y ago
  Nobody wants to fight China because the cost is so high - we are talking about lives more than dollars here (though dollar cost is high too). What everyone worries about is being forced to fight China anyway. China is not playing nice with the US on the world stage. They are clearly supporting Russia over Ukraine (while pretending to be neutral). They are siding with Iran in the middle east. They are doing things in Africa that are against US interests (the US doesn't have a good record in Africa, but the US generally has supported democracy while China is fine with dictators which leaves lots of room for China to be worse though only time will tell). They escalating with Taiwan and the Philippians. Those are the major reasons I'm aware of to be worried about China, there is more that I didn't write. How will this turn out - we can only guess. But there is reason to worry.
  - roenxi 2y ago
    All those reasons apply to Russia too. > but the US generally has supported democracy while China is fine with dictators In the Middle East the US's #1 ally is indeed a democracy, but is currently fending off various challenges [1, 2] accusing them of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Their #2 ally is an authoritarian regime run by a gentleman who can be identified with phrases like "the bone saw incident" let alone the Kingdom's long record of barbarism and human rights abuses. The US might win a battle of who supports better causes, but it isn't a can of worms to open either. There is no particular indication that it cares about the government system or actions of the people it supports. [0] If the US didn't do it directly, they endorsed it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Criminal_Court https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Cr... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Court_of_Justice_application https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Co...
    - bluGill 2y ago
      Every other option is even worse. Including walking away (they have too much oil so someone will control it)

roenxi 2y ago

But if they "doesn't" fight Russia now, why are they going to fight China in the future? Pretty good odds they won't because the cost is too high. What we appear to be seeing is they don't really have a lot of tools that can be used against an uncooperative nuclear-armed power; and many of those tools would probably fail against China.

bluGill 2y ago
Nobody wants to fight China because the cost is so high - we are talking about lives more than dollars here (though dollar cost is high too). What everyone worries about is being forced to fight China anyway. China is not playing nice with the US on the world stage. They are clearly supporting Russia over Ukraine (while pretending to be neutral). They are siding with Iran in the middle east. They are doing things in Africa that are against US interests (the US doesn't have a good record in Africa, but the US generally has supported democracy while China is fine with dictators which leaves lots of room for China to be worse though only time will tell). They escalating with Taiwan and the Philippians. Those are the major reasons I'm aware of to be worried about China, there is more that I didn't write. How will this turn out - we can only guess. But there is reason to worry.
- roenxi 2y ago
  All those reasons apply to Russia too. > but the US generally has supported democracy while China is fine with dictators In the Middle East the US's #1 ally is indeed a democracy, but is currently fending off various challenges [1, 2] accusing them of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Their #2 ally is an authoritarian regime run by a gentleman who can be identified with phrases like "the bone saw incident" let alone the Kingdom's long record of barbarism and human rights abuses. The US might win a battle of who supports better causes, but it isn't a can of worms to open either. There is no particular indication that it cares about the government system or actions of the people it supports. [0] If the US didn't do it directly, they endorsed it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Criminal_Court https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Cr... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Court_of_Justice_application https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide#International_Co...
  - bluGill 2y ago
    Every other option is even worse. Including walking away (they have too much oil so someone will control it)