4 ms·

they will be. Looking at the rate of progress (just tried o1mini), its inevitable.

jsheard 2y ago
Even if we accept that premise, why should OpenAI be the ones to manage a $7T investment in hardware and datacenter development over, y'know, hardware and datacenter companies like Nvidia and Amazon? OpenAI has zero experience in those fields.
- zer0c00ler 2y ago
  [dead]
- cdchn 2y ago
  One of these parties cares more about where the money comes from than the other.
gtirloni 2y ago
If it was, companies like Microsoft and Apple would have acquired them a long time ago. The fact they decided to have a partnership means they have reason to believe the hype isn't real beyond what we already know today and they don't want to have to explain it to shareholders in the near future.
- aero-glide2 2y ago
  They haven't acquired because Open AI is not for sale.
  - gtirloni 2y ago
    There's no such thing. Every company is up for sale, if you have the money. Rare exceptions are old companies where the founder is still around and rejects deal after deal on pride. OpenAI is nothing like that, as the profit/non-profit drama exemplifies.
- llmfan 2y ago
  Doesn't Microsoft have a decent amount of ownership in some aspect of OpenAI's labyrinthine structure? Take Anthropic for a more legible example: Amazon and Google both gladly bought large stakes in it.
  - gtirloni 2y ago
    Why buy stakes and not the whole thing to block your competitors from making deals with them? This is big corp 101 and has happened countless times. It's even more likely if OpenAI is to be a $7T company in the future. Such an acquisition would be approved in a second... if the hype was real.
    - 4ggr0 2y ago
      > Why buy stakes and not the whole thing To give less reasons for people and governments to accuse them of monopolistic behaviour. Maybe. Wild speculations from my end.
AlexandrB 2y ago
I once read that on the 80s it was believed that female runners would soon outpace male runners because the trend line for them was moving up so fast. This turned out not to be the case because the curve wasn't exponential but "S" shaped - the female runners eventually plateaued. It's easy to assume that exponential growth will continue indefinitely but it's rarely the case that this is true.
- njarboe 2y ago
  Agreed, but when will the exponential bend over. Moore's law went on for a long time, industrial revolution, population growth. Very hard to know in advance.
- automatic6131 2y ago
  Wow, I didn't expect this to be true (that anyone believed that) BUT https://www.nytimes.com/1992/01/07/science/2-experts-say-women-who-run-may-overtake-men.html https://www.nytimes.com/1992/01/07/science/2-experts-say-wom... But it was just two people and they were criticized by peers for being space cadets at the time. There are always some people ready to make a fool of themselves for recognition, perhaps.
DebtDeflation 2y ago
>the rate of progress Let's talk about that. GPT-3.5 (specifically text-davinci-003) was a massive leap over everything that came before it. GPT-4 was a massive leap over GPT-3.5. Everything since (GPT-4 Turbo, GPT-4o, GPT o1) feels like steady incremental improvement (putting aside multimodal capabilities) rather than massive leaps. I'm far from convinced that the rate of progress made with foundation models in 2022-2023 has continued in 2024 let alone from extrapolating that it will continue for the next several years.

Even if we accept that premise, why should OpenAI be the ones to manage a $7T investment in hardware and datacenter development over, y'know, hardware and datacenter companies like Nvidia and Amazon? OpenAI has zero experience in those fields.

zer0c00ler 2y ago
[dead]
cdchn 2y ago
One of these parties cares more about where the money comes from than the other.

gtirloni 2y ago

If it was, companies like Microsoft and Apple would have acquired them a long time ago. The fact they decided to have a partnership means they have reason to believe the hype isn't real beyond what we already know today and they don't want to have to explain it to shareholders in the near future.

aero-glide2 2y ago
They haven't acquired because Open AI is not for sale.
- gtirloni 2y ago
  There's no such thing. Every company is up for sale, if you have the money. Rare exceptions are old companies where the founder is still around and rejects deal after deal on pride. OpenAI is nothing like that, as the profit/non-profit drama exemplifies.
llmfan 2y ago
Doesn't Microsoft have a decent amount of ownership in some aspect of OpenAI's labyrinthine structure? Take Anthropic for a more legible example: Amazon and Google both gladly bought large stakes in it.
- gtirloni 2y ago
  Why buy stakes and not the whole thing to block your competitors from making deals with them? This is big corp 101 and has happened countless times. It's even more likely if OpenAI is to be a $7T company in the future. Such an acquisition would be approved in a second... if the hype was real.
  - 4ggr0 2y ago
    > Why buy stakes and not the whole thing To give less reasons for people and governments to accuse them of monopolistic behaviour. Maybe. Wild speculations from my end.

AlexandrB 2y ago

I once read that on the 80s it was believed that female runners would soon outpace male runners because the trend line for them was moving up so fast. This turned out not to be the case because the curve wasn't exponential but "S" shaped - the female runners eventually plateaued. It's easy to assume that exponential growth will continue indefinitely but it's rarely the case that this is true.

njarboe 2y ago
Agreed, but when will the exponential bend over. Moore's law went on for a long time, industrial revolution, population growth. Very hard to know in advance.
automatic6131 2y ago
Wow, I didn't expect this to be true (that anyone believed that) BUT https://www.nytimes.com/1992/01/07/science/2-experts-say-women-who-run-may-overtake-men.html https://www.nytimes.com/1992/01/07/science/2-experts-say-wom... But it was just two people and they were criticized by peers for being space cadets at the time. There are always some people ready to make a fool of themselves for recognition, perhaps.

DebtDeflation 2y ago

>the rate of progress Let's talk about that. GPT-3.5 (specifically text-davinci-003) was a massive leap over everything that came before it. GPT-4 was a massive leap over GPT-3.5. Everything since (GPT-4 Turbo, GPT-4o, GPT o1) feels like steady incremental improvement (putting aside multimodal capabilities) rather than massive leaps. I'm far from convinced that the rate of progress made with foundation models in 2022-2023 has continued in 2024 let alone from extrapolating that it will continue for the next several years.