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> If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right - Arthur C. Clarke Geoffrey Hinton is a 76 year old
by khafra 2y ago
> If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right
- Arthur C. Clarke
Geoffrey Hinton is a 76 year old Turing Award* winner. What more do you want?
*Corrected by kranner
- kranner 2y ago> Geoffrey Hinton is a 76 year old Nobel Prize winner. Turing Award, not Nobel Prize
- khafra 2y agoThanks for the correction; I am undistinguished and getting more elderly by the minute.
- khafra 2y agoReality has now corrected my error, which was amongst the funniest possible outcomes.
- kranner 2y agoIndeed! Your comment was the first thing I thought of when I heard the news and I thought of replying too but assumed you might not have enabled notifications Hilarious, all in all!
- nessbot 2y agoThis is like a second-order appeal to authority fallacy, which is kinda funny.
- randomdata 2y agoHinton says that superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance. A far cry from the few year claim. You must be doing that "strawberry" thing again? To us humans, A-l-t-m-a-n is not H-i-n-t-o-n.
- khafra 2y ago> superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance I don't know the details of Hinton's probability distribution. If his prediction is normally distributed with a mean of 20 years and a SD of 15, which is reasonable for such a difficult and contentious prediction, that puts over 10% of the probability in the next 3 years. Is 10% a lot? For sports betting, not really. For Mankind's Last Invention, I would argue that it is.
- randomdata 2y agoYou don't know because he did not say. He said 20 years, which are more than a few.
- hbn 2y agoWhen he said this was he imagining an "elderly but distinguished scientist" who is riding an insanely inflated bubble of hype and a bajillion dollars of VC backing that incentivize him to make these claims?
- cubefox 2y agoWhat are you talking about? How would Hinton be incentivized by money?
- Vegenoid 2y agoI'd like to see a study on this, because I think it is completely untrue.
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