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Even in the thought experiment you give, which obviously has very little to do with someone working without putting significant capital at risk - if the lottery

Even in the thought experiment you give, which obviously has very little to do with someone working without putting significant capital at risk - if the lottery is EV negative, then although the first win may be luck, the choice to stop playing after the first win is not luck but skill :)

latexr 2y ago
> the choice to stop playing after the first win is not luck but skill That would only be true if you said you chose to stop playing because you knew you were going to lose. But in the example (which was based on your point) the person is claiming they would continue winning if they continued to play. Respectfully, I’m waiting for an answer from the author of the post. They wrote it, they’re the ones who can explain what they meant. This speculative conversation we’re having isn’t going to get us closer to the truth of someone else’s intention.
- naming_the_user 2y ago
  The person posting is not speaking about gambling, but about working and building businesses. I'm not sure why you are using a lottery as a comparison. The reasonable worst case with any application of skill (e.g. don't put your entire net worth into a risky business) is that they end up roughly where they started.
  - latexr 2y ago
    It’s called an analogy, and it was made specifically to address a point you made (which is why I quoted you, not them).
    - naming_the_user 2y ago
      Sure, but it's not analogous, because your scenario has significant downside. A person with the correct skills can choose to work at a charity or at say, a well paying software job. One choice gives them more money than the other and there is no luck involved. This is self evident really, I assume that you also do know this, but then it's confusing when people focus on luck as if most people are even playing the game at all. edit: Actually, that's probably a better way of framing it. The upper bound on wealth for a person is very much luck based, but almost no-one is operating remotely close to their skill cap, so in practice it doesn't matter that much. You might need luck to make a billion, but to make a few million just needs dedication barring some obvious handicaps such as e.g. being born in North Korea.

latexr 2y ago

> the choice to stop playing after the first win is not luck but skill That would only be true if you said you chose to stop playing because you knew you were going to lose. But in the example (which was based on your point) the person is claiming they would continue winning if they continued to play. Respectfully, I’m waiting for an answer from the author of the post. They wrote it, they’re the ones who can explain what they meant. This speculative conversation we’re having isn’t going to get us closer to the truth of someone else’s intention.

naming_the_user 2y ago
The person posting is not speaking about gambling, but about working and building businesses. I'm not sure why you are using a lottery as a comparison. The reasonable worst case with any application of skill (e.g. don't put your entire net worth into a risky business) is that they end up roughly where they started.
- latexr 2y ago
  It’s called an analogy, and it was made specifically to address a point you made (which is why I quoted you, not them).
  - naming_the_user 2y ago
    Sure, but it's not analogous, because your scenario has significant downside. A person with the correct skills can choose to work at a charity or at say, a well paying software job. One choice gives them more money than the other and there is no luck involved. This is self evident really, I assume that you also do know this, but then it's confusing when people focus on luck as if most people are even playing the game at all. edit: Actually, that's probably a better way of framing it. The upper bound on wealth for a person is very much luck based, but almost no-one is operating remotely close to their skill cap, so in practice it doesn't matter that much. You might need luck to make a billion, but to make a few million just needs dedication barring some obvious handicaps such as e.g. being born in North Korea.