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Why would Iran pay anything? If USA decides to launch unprovoked full scale invasion, they have a right to defend themselves! And US army could not even conqu

Why would Iran pay anything? If USA decides to launch unprovoked full scale invasion, they have a right to defend themselves! And US army could not even conquer Afghanistan after 20 years. There is no way they would win.

ben_w 2y ago
> Why would Iran pay anything? If USA decides to launch unprovoked full scale invasion, they have a right to defend themselves! I already told you why: They ratified a treaty saying so. (Also: 'unprovoked'? The US isn't seeking reasons for that right now, even currently trying to lower tensions between them and Israel, and the two even had a brief period where they agreed to stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework) Furthermore, the right to self defence doesn't give countries free reign to do anything, it has to be done with consideration to the harms done to non-combatants, both in the sense of "civilians" and "neutral countries". > And US army could not even conquer Afghanistan after 20 years. There is no way they would win. They conquored Afghanistan in a few months; they didn't want to run the place, so they tried to build a democracy. That didn't do what they were expecting, but it doesn't matter if the threat is "does XYZ have nukes and ICBMs?"
- throw73737 2y ago
  In a few months US will have an anti-islamic version of Putin. He is the one who withdrew from treaties you linked. > consideration to the harms done to non-combatants, both in the sense of "civilians" and "neutral countries". Knocking down Starlink is perfect version of no-harms strike. Nobody dies, only person negative affected is Musk and some techno bros.
  - inemesitaffia 2y ago
    I'm here. I'll be affected along with 4 million others
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > In a few months US will have an anti-islamic version of Putin With 45% probability, assuming he isn't assassinated. The tie with Musk would make your hypothetical very convenient for Iran as an empty threat though, so there's that. > Nobody dies Loads of people die from communication failures. More importantly, this would only even be a threat if it could actually cause a kessler cascade, because there's too many Starlink satellites to target directly even if you own SpaceX. This matters because such a cascade will also mess up everything else in close orbits regardless of nationality. It's like hypothesising someone might use CFCs as a chemical weapon: sure, if they want to make enemies with basically everyone all at the same time.

ben_w 2y ago

> Why would Iran pay anything? If USA decides to launch unprovoked full scale invasion, they have a right to defend themselves! I already told you why: They ratified a treaty saying so. (Also: 'unprovoked'? The US isn't seeking reasons for that right now, even currently trying to lower tensions between them and Israel, and the two even had a brief period where they agreed to stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework) Furthermore, the right to self defence doesn't give countries free reign to do anything, it has to be done with consideration to the harms done to non-combatants, both in the sense of "civilians" and "neutral countries". > And US army could not even conquer Afghanistan after 20 years. There is no way they would win. They conquored Afghanistan in a few months; they didn't want to run the place, so they tried to build a democracy. That didn't do what they were expecting, but it doesn't matter if the threat is "does XYZ have nukes and ICBMs?"

throw73737 2y ago
In a few months US will have an anti-islamic version of Putin. He is the one who withdrew from treaties you linked. > consideration to the harms done to non-combatants, both in the sense of "civilians" and "neutral countries". Knocking down Starlink is perfect version of no-harms strike. Nobody dies, only person negative affected is Musk and some techno bros.
- inemesitaffia 2y ago
  I'm here. I'll be affected along with 4 million others
- ben_w 2y ago
  > In a few months US will have an anti-islamic version of Putin With 45% probability, assuming he isn't assassinated. The tie with Musk would make your hypothetical very convenient for Iran as an empty threat though, so there's that. > Nobody dies Loads of people die from communication failures. More importantly, this would only even be a threat if it could actually cause a kessler cascade, because there's too many Starlink satellites to target directly even if you own SpaceX. This matters because such a cascade will also mess up everything else in close orbits regardless of nationality. It's like hypothesising someone might use CFCs as a chemical weapon: sure, if they want to make enemies with basically everyone all at the same time.