This is the trillion dollar question. The pace of improvement has increased now that they are using an end-to-end neural net architecture. My personal guess is

This is the trillion dollar question. The pace of improvement has increased now that they are using an end-to-end neural net architecture. My personal guess is that they will be able to reach Waymo's current level within 5 years, possibly significantly sooner. But I still expect that a car computer upgrade will be required, and probably a camera upgrade too. I know Elon says "next year" every year, but put aside his delusional timelines and think about the monumental change that will occur in the world once a car can drive itself better than a human with ~$1000 worth of hardware. Does it really matter if it takes a few extra years? I can wait five more years for that!