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It looks dire but it seems too early for the nearly-always-wrong naysayer crowd to be right & take their victory lap. Maybe not. But I always thought that, es

It looks dire but it seems too early for the nearly-always-wrong naysayer crowd to be right & take their victory lap. Maybe not. But I always thought that, especially with their lobbying efforts and desire to project a sense of seriousness (even if unfounded) around those efforts, that it was very unlikely they would release a next-gen model before the US election. I agree that the marketing/messaging, esp on social media, is borderline deranged, swinging between “we are basically The Foundation” and “pweese try my pwoduct i hope u love it (heart hands emoji)”

lolinder 2y ago
> it seems too early for the nearly-always-wrong naysayer crowd to be right & take their victory lap. I agree it's too early to call for sure, but just to clarify: The naysayers are nearly always right. We just only remember the times they were wrong.
- hyggetrold 2y ago
  > The naysayers are nearly always right. We just only remember the times they were wrong. Wait what?
  - lolinder 2y ago
    Nearly every venture of any sort fails. The only times we remember the naysayers are on the rare occasions where they were wrong and the venture succeeded.
    - hyggetrold 2y ago
      Ah okay, that makes sense.
  - artwr 2y ago
    I'll let parent elaborate more on the intent, but the way I interpreted it was : Saying that a startup will fail (i.e. being a naysayer) and being right about that is the most likely outcome due to the current "success" distribution (most businesses/startups fail). Also the most memorable ones are when people were dismissive but ultimately wrong about the viability of the business (like the "dropbox" comment).
    - flkiwi 2y ago
      I think there's a deeper implication that the naysayers _about the subject of the hype_ are usually right, rather than simply about anyone trying to exploit the hype. Metaverse was going to be the next big thing. Naysayers (correctly) laughed. Nobody talks about metaverse now.
  - bunderbunder 2y ago
    Because we mostly remember the things that are still around. Everyone knows about Charles Darwin but nobody knows about Erasmus Darwin, kind of thing.
  - anonymousab 2y ago
    The vast majority of startups fail. Most attempts at business will fail. It's just the nature of things. But I think a not uncommon pattern with "too big to fail" startups is that they can change their definition of success or failure in order to claim victory. Or at least, in order for Sam to do so. They might not reach the stated goal of AGI or even general profitability, but if Sam and some key investors manage to come out ahead at the end of their maneuvering, then I'm sure they'll claim victory (and that they changed the world and all that pomp).
    - philistine 2y ago
      Funny how their definition of changing the world amounts to: Fuck you, got mine.
      - tivert 2y ago
        > Funny how their definition of changing the world amounts to: Fuck you, got mine. It's sad, but at this point I pretty much assume anyone out of SV who claims they're trying to change the world are either liars, incompetents, or both. That whole culture has just been on a tear of goodwill-burning.
  - myprotegeai 2y ago
    If it wasn't this way, it would mean new things are more likely to succeed than fail.
- iamsrp 2y ago
  No.
- jsheard 2y ago
  See the waves of investor hype that immediately preceded the AI hypewave: Metaverse and Blockchain. The naysayers were absolutely right. Not to worry though, the geniuses at Meta and a16z are sure that AI will stick the landing, after they bet the farm on Metaverse and Blockchain respectively.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Naysayers in the British establishment thought the 13 colonies would come crawling back when their little experiment with democracy failed and they needed some proper aristocrats who knew what they were doing. The space race had naysayers; the NYT printed the opinion that manned flight would take one to ten million years a week before the Wright Brothers; the iPod was lame with less space than a Nomad; SpaceX and Tesla were both dismissed when they were young; 3D printing likewise dismissed as if it was only plastic trinkets; and I've seen plenty of people here on HackerNews proclaiming that "AI will never ${x}" for various things some of which had already been accomplished by that point. There's always a naysayer. You can use their mere existence as evidence for much, it has to be the specific arguments.
    - philistine 2y ago
      There's a difference between a naysayer and criticism. Using your iPod example, it was described as lame, in a way to dismiss it out of hand. But it did indeed have less space than a Nomad. That's valid, but ultimately unimportant, criticism. People here are criticizing the business fundamentals of the openAI company. What are your takes on its finances? Or are you just on board, everything is great, do not look behind the curtain where we hide our five billion dollar losses?
  - tim333 2y ago
    Investment return over the last 30 years: S&P 6x Nasdaq 24x Sticking your money in tech may have ups and downs but has not done badly. Also AI will be huge in a way blockchain and the metaverse were not. Also re blockchain if you'd bought bitcoin rather than some bs startup you'd have done well. Though OpenAI may be in the bs startup category... dunno.
  - 2y ago

lolinder 2y ago

> it seems too early for the nearly-always-wrong naysayer crowd to be right & take their victory lap. I agree it's too early to call for sure, but just to clarify: The naysayers are nearly always right. We just only remember the times they were wrong.

hyggetrold 2y ago
> The naysayers are nearly always right. We just only remember the times they were wrong. Wait what?
- lolinder 2y ago
  Nearly every venture of any sort fails. The only times we remember the naysayers are on the rare occasions where they were wrong and the venture succeeded.
  - hyggetrold 2y ago
    Ah okay, that makes sense.
- artwr 2y ago
  I'll let parent elaborate more on the intent, but the way I interpreted it was : Saying that a startup will fail (i.e. being a naysayer) and being right about that is the most likely outcome due to the current "success" distribution (most businesses/startups fail). Also the most memorable ones are when people were dismissive but ultimately wrong about the viability of the business (like the "dropbox" comment).
  - flkiwi 2y ago
    I think there's a deeper implication that the naysayers _about the subject of the hype_ are usually right, rather than simply about anyone trying to exploit the hype. Metaverse was going to be the next big thing. Naysayers (correctly) laughed. Nobody talks about metaverse now.
- bunderbunder 2y ago
  Because we mostly remember the things that are still around. Everyone knows about Charles Darwin but nobody knows about Erasmus Darwin, kind of thing.
- anonymousab 2y ago
  The vast majority of startups fail. Most attempts at business will fail. It's just the nature of things. But I think a not uncommon pattern with "too big to fail" startups is that they can change their definition of success or failure in order to claim victory. Or at least, in order for Sam to do so. They might not reach the stated goal of AGI or even general profitability, but if Sam and some key investors manage to come out ahead at the end of their maneuvering, then I'm sure they'll claim victory (and that they changed the world and all that pomp).
  - philistine 2y ago
    Funny how their definition of changing the world amounts to: Fuck you, got mine.
    - tivert 2y ago
      > Funny how their definition of changing the world amounts to: Fuck you, got mine. It's sad, but at this point I pretty much assume anyone out of SV who claims they're trying to change the world are either liars, incompetents, or both. That whole culture has just been on a tear of goodwill-burning.
- myprotegeai 2y ago
  If it wasn't this way, it would mean new things are more likely to succeed than fail.
iamsrp 2y ago
No.
jsheard 2y ago
See the waves of investor hype that immediately preceded the AI hypewave: Metaverse and Blockchain. The naysayers were absolutely right. Not to worry though, the geniuses at Meta and a16z are sure that AI will stick the landing, after they bet the farm on Metaverse and Blockchain respectively.
- ben_w 2y ago
  Naysayers in the British establishment thought the 13 colonies would come crawling back when their little experiment with democracy failed and they needed some proper aristocrats who knew what they were doing. The space race had naysayers; the NYT printed the opinion that manned flight would take one to ten million years a week before the Wright Brothers; the iPod was lame with less space than a Nomad; SpaceX and Tesla were both dismissed when they were young; 3D printing likewise dismissed as if it was only plastic trinkets; and I've seen plenty of people here on HackerNews proclaiming that "AI will never ${x}" for various things some of which had already been accomplished by that point. There's always a naysayer. You can use their mere existence as evidence for much, it has to be the specific arguments.
  - philistine 2y ago
    There's a difference between a naysayer and criticism. Using your iPod example, it was described as lame, in a way to dismiss it out of hand. But it did indeed have less space than a Nomad. That's valid, but ultimately unimportant, criticism. People here are criticizing the business fundamentals of the openAI company. What are your takes on its finances? Or are you just on board, everything is great, do not look behind the curtain where we hide our five billion dollar losses?
- tim333 2y ago
  Investment return over the last 30 years: S&P 6x Nasdaq 24x Sticking your money in tech may have ups and downs but has not done badly. Also AI will be huge in a way blockchain and the metaverse were not. Also re blockchain if you'd bought bitcoin rather than some bs startup you'd have done well. Though OpenAI may be in the bs startup category... dunno.
- 2y ago