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This is true, however it has been improving quickly. Releases are coming once every couple of months. There is already a newer release than the ones they tested

This is true, however it has been improving quickly. Releases are coming once every couple of months. There is already a newer release than the ones they tested, and each release is noticeably better. There is no indication of a ceiling yet. I do take issue with the claim that "its seeming infallibility in anyone's first five minutes of FSD operation breeds a sense of awe that unavoidably leads to dangerous complacency". Waymo claims this as well, citing it as the reason they never released a driver assistance feature and went for full autonomy instead. However, this is is essentially speculation that has not been borne out in practice. There has been no epidemic of crashes from people abusing Autopilot or FSD. It's been on the roads for years. If "dangerous complacency" was a real problem we it would be blindingly obvious from the statistics by now. There have been just a few well publicized cases but statistically there is no evidence that this "dangerous complacency" problem is worse than normal driving.

deely3 2y ago
> each release is noticeably better. FSD beta was introduced four years ago. How many more updates will it take for it to achieve FSD as full self-driving capabilities?
- modeless 2y ago
  This is the trillion dollar question. The pace of improvement has increased now that they are using an end-to-end neural net architecture. My personal guess is that they will be able to reach Waymo's current level within 5 years, possibly significantly sooner. But I still expect that a car computer upgrade will be required, and probably a camera upgrade too. I know Elon says "next year" every year, but put aside his delusional timelines and think about the monumental change that will occur in the world once a car can drive itself better than a human with ~$1000 worth of hardware. Does it really matter if it takes a few extra years? I can wait five more years for that!

deely3 2y ago

> each release is noticeably better. FSD beta was introduced four years ago. How many more updates will it take for it to achieve FSD as full self-driving capabilities?

modeless 2y ago
This is the trillion dollar question. The pace of improvement has increased now that they are using an end-to-end neural net architecture. My personal guess is that they will be able to reach Waymo's current level within 5 years, possibly significantly sooner. But I still expect that a car computer upgrade will be required, and probably a camera upgrade too. I know Elon says "next year" every year, but put aside his delusional timelines and think about the monumental change that will occur in the world once a car can drive itself better than a human with ~$1000 worth of hardware. Does it really matter if it takes a few extra years? I can wait five more years for that!