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How does it respond when there is a police officer directing traffic? What if the police officer gives a verbal command? FSD, as Tesla markets it, is hype. Th

by avalys 2y ago

How does it respond when there is a police officer directing traffic? What if the police officer gives a verbal command? FSD, as Tesla markets it, is hype. They are no where close to a marketable solution for the use cases they advertise - Robotaxis, the ability to step out of your car and have it park somewhere else by itself, etc. Yes, they will get it to 99% at some point - but 99% is not good enough for legal liability. FSD is an ambitious goal and I don’t criticize Musk for pursuing it. But I will criticize him for using it as a distraction from the fact that Tesla has a stale and/or uncompetitive product line and is rapidly losing their lead to both conventional OEMs and Chinese EV makers.

margalabargala 2y ago
Like is often the case with these things, it will continue being approached until it's essentially a solved problem. On the front page right now is the 10-year-old xkcd comic about how determining if a photo is of a bird takes a team of researchers. This is now trivial. Cars driving themselves are doing better than they were 3 years ago. Three years from now they will be better still. I don't know how long it will take, and I don't know who will get there first, but I will bet you that the people who are currently in their 50s will never have to give up driving, because by the time they are too old to drive, self-driving will be good enough for them to use.
SmartJerry 2y ago
I disagree that a'99%' level won't get good enough for legal liability. Let's say normal human drivers make an error once every 10 miles, but Tesla's FSD makes an error once every 100 miles. The obvious choice is Tesla FSD even though it is not 100% perfect, and in fact it is 10 times better than a human driver. They might even make it illegal to drive without FSD once it becomes widely available. In the end all the speculation about how good it is or can be means absolutely zero because the results will be created in the end by insurance companies or Tesla, which has it's own insurance company. If it actually is causing more crashes, insurance companies will start charging higher rates, less people will buy Tesla's etc. But we aren't seeing that, with FSD already out there, the insurance premiums for Teslas are not skyrocketing to cover all the accidents. I sort of glossed over this but Tesla also provides insurance which guarantees at least one market participant in FSD, if they cannot make money insuring their own cars FSD will fail, if they can make a profitable insurance company insuring them then FSD will succeed.

by avalys 2y ago

margalabargala 2y ago

Like is often the case with these things, it will continue being approached until it's essentially a solved problem. On the front page right now is the 10-year-old xkcd comic about how determining if a photo is of a bird takes a team of researchers. This is now trivial. Cars driving themselves are doing better than they were 3 years ago. Three years from now they will be better still. I don't know how long it will take, and I don't know who will get there first, but I will bet you that the people who are currently in their 50s will never have to give up driving, because by the time they are too old to drive, self-driving will be good enough for them to use.

SmartJerry 2y ago

I disagree that a'99%' level won't get good enough for legal liability. Let's say normal human drivers make an error once every 10 miles, but Tesla's FSD makes an error once every 100 miles. The obvious choice is Tesla FSD even though it is not 100% perfect, and in fact it is 10 times better than a human driver. They might even make it illegal to drive without FSD once it becomes widely available. In the end all the speculation about how good it is or can be means absolutely zero because the results will be created in the end by insurance companies or Tesla, which has it's own insurance company. If it actually is causing more crashes, insurance companies will start charging higher rates, less people will buy Tesla's etc. But we aren't seeing that, with FSD already out there, the insurance premiums for Teslas are not skyrocketing to cover all the accidents. I sort of glossed over this but Tesla also provides insurance which guarantees at least one market participant in FSD, if they cannot make money insuring their own cars FSD will fail, if they can make a profitable insurance company insuring them then FSD will succeed.