4 ms·
The moat is in the sheer cost of training models. At most you’ll have like 5 major players.
by dartos 2y ago
The moat is in the sheer cost of training models.
At most you’ll have like 5 major players.
- turnsout 2y agoIsn’t their training subsidized by Microsoft? Sounds like Microsoft has the moat.
- dartos 2y agoSure, whatever. The moat is still the cost.
- turnsout 2y agoI hear ya. But with great open source models like Llama 3.2 dropping near-daily, I wonder if/when we’ll reach a point where free models are good enough for 99% of tasks.
- dartos 2y agoLlama is NOT open source. It’s freeware. We can’t reproduce it and its license has commercial restrictions. That being said, most models are based on llama, so it may seem like a lot of movement is happening, but it’s not, really. RWKV and deepseek are the only LLMs that’re fully open that I’m aware of. If meta decided to stop releasing llama, that’s that.
- n_ary 2y agoIf llama achieves valuable strides, it will definitely be put behind paywall. The play has always been the same, release something semi-polished until you gain mass adaptation, then build a paywall infront when people are reliant on it and attrition is expensive. Look at the twitter API for example, or reddit or what not.
- __loam 2y agoWhen there's like 5 essentially interchangeable products from your competitors, you don't have a moat.
- dartos 2y agoWe don’t know that they will be interchangeable forever. Just because they share a near identical interface does not mean they will always have identical capabilities
- pr337h4m 2y agoMicrosoft is extremely likely to get rugged: “Fifth, the board determines when we've attained AGI. Again, by AGI we mean a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work. Such a system is excluded from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft, which only apply to pre-AGI technology.” https://openai.com/our-structure/ https://openai.com/our-structure/
- throwaway314155 2y agoSorry but that quote just makes it seem more likely that Microsoft will be able to hold on to their current agreement for a fairly long time.
- dartos 2y ago“If we discover the holy grail in the unicorn meadow, you can’t have it” Is a fine clause for MS. Hardly a rug pull.
- nkozyra 2y ago> At most you’ll have like 5 major players. 5 companies doing a repeated leapfrog game where consumers can flip without much effort seems like the opposite of a moat, unless and until they consolidate into a monopoly. I'm starting to feel some diminishing returns on the new releases, too. The wow moments are still there but fundamentally we're reaching a point wherein even open models can come close enough on some tasks that we can eschew paid models for not-insignificant pieces here and there.
- dartos 2y agoWe don’t know if they will stay exactly interchangeable forever. Google has a deal for Reddit’s data, so its models will have that information. I can see this kind of thing being a moat as well. And yeah obviously you’re going to feel diminishing returns. Going from 0 to 1 always feels like a bigger step than from 1 to 2.
- nkozyra 2y ago> Google has a deal for Reddit’s data, so its models will have that information. I can see this kind of thing being a moat as well. I don't see this as a silver bullet but let's assume this is true and a differentiator. This kind of validates that building a robust model hits a data saturation wall at some point and the moat dries up.
- ethbr1 2y agoFresh human data feeds at scale are always going to be valuable. - Meta has its own - Reddit is monetizing its - Twitter was bought for its - MS is trying to create one - Amazon has a funhouse mirror version (reviews) Apple seems oddly without a dance partner, but I'm guessing they figure they can leverage pre-built / open models for the features they're targeting.
- jprete 2y agoEvery single one of those is flooded with bots and spam.