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Interesting that gwern predicted this as well yesterday > Translation for the rest of us: "we need to fully privatize the OA subsidiary and turn it into a B-co
by Recursing 2y ago
Interesting that gwern predicted this as well yesterday
> Translation for the rest of us: "we need to fully privatize the OA subsidiary and turn it into a B-corp which can raise a lot more capital over the next decade, in order to achieve the goals of the nonprofit, because the chief threat is not anything like existential risk from autonomous agents in the next few years or arms races, but inadequate commercialization due to fundraising constraints".
> It's about laying the groundwork for the privatization and establishing rhetorical grounds for how the privatization of OA is consistent with the OA nonprofit's legally-required mission and fiduciary duties. Altman is not writing to anyone here, he is, among others, writing to the OA nonprofit board and to the judge next year.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41629493 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41629493
- reducesuffering 2y agoWith multiple correct predictions, do you think the rest of HN will start to listen to Gwern’s beliefs about OpenAI / AGI problems? Probably not.
- baxtr 2y agoI’m not aware of those beliefs. Could you provide a link to an article/ comment?
- comp_throw7 2y agoThis is somewhat high context, but as a random example: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtoPawEhLNXNxvgTT/bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggressively-misaligned#ckwcde6QBaNw7yxCt https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtoPawEhLNXNxvgTT/bing-chat-...
- baxtr 2y agoSo is he predicting that AGI is around the corner?
- reducesuffering 2y agohttps://gwern.net/fiction/clippy https://gwern.net/fiction/clippy TL;DR spoiler from someone else is: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5e9arCnbDac9Doig/it-looks-like-you-re-trying-to-take-over-the-world#QDKsFyDtkQRpi8jMe https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5e9arCnbDac9Doig/it-looks-l...
- andy_ppp 2y agoAre we sure it’s safe to suggest plans like this for the AI /s
- usaar333 2y agoThat's not a novel prediction. There were news reports nearly 2 weeks ago about this: https://fortune.com/2024/09/13/sam-altman-openai-non-profit-structure-change-next-year/ https://fortune.com/2024/09/13/sam-altman-openai-non-profit-... Gwern's more novel prediction track record is calling everyone leaving from OpenAI (Mira was not expected) and general bullishness on scaling years ago. His post from 2 years ago (https://old.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/comments/uznkhw/gpt3_2nd_anniversary/iab8vy2/ https://old.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/comments/uznkhw/gpt3_2nd_...) is mostly correct, though incorrectly believed large companies would not deploy user-facing LLMs (granted I think much of this is reasonably obvious?). And Gato2 seems to have never happened. His overall predictions? I can find his prediction book which he heavily used in 2010 (https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern/page/2?filter=judged&tags=); https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern/page/2?filter=judged&... Brier score of 0.16 is quite good, but this isn't superforecaster level (there's people with Brier scores below 0.1 on that site). Overall, I see no reason to believe Gwern's numbers over say the consensus prediction at metaculus, even though yes, I do love reading his analysis.