4 ms·

Maybe its marketing and LLMs are the peak of what they are capable of.

bossyTeacher 2y ago
Kind of. My money is on we have reached the point of diminishing returns. A bit like Machine Learning. Now it's all about exploiting business cases for LLMs. That's the only reason I can think as to why gpt5 won't be coming anytime soon and when it does it will be very underwhelming and will be the first public signal that we are past LLM peak and perhaps people will stop finally assuming that LLMs will reach AGI within their lifetimes
bmitc 2y ago
I continue to be surprised by the talk of general artifical intelligence when it comes to LLMs. At their core, they are text predictors, and they're often pretty good at that. But anything beyond that, they are decidely unimpressive. I use Copilot on a daily basis, which uses GPT 4 in the backend. It's wrong so often that I only really use it for boilerplate autocomplete, which I still have to review. I've had colleagues brag about ChatGPT in terms of code it produces, but when I ask how long it took in terms of prompting, I'll get an answer of around a day, and that was even using fragments of my code to prompt it. But then I explain that it would take me probably less than an hour from scratch to do what it took them and ChatGPT a full day to do. So I just don't understand the hype. I'm using Copilot and ChatGPT 4. What is everyone else using that gives them this idea that AGI is just around the corner? AI isn't even here. It's just advanced autocomplete. I can't understand where the disconnect is.
- berniedurfee 2y ago
  Here now, you just need a few more ice cold glasses of the kool-aide. Drink up! LLMs are not on the path to AGI. They’re a really cool parlor trick and will be powerful tools for lots of tasks, but won’t be sci-fi cool. Copilot is useful and has definitely sped up coding, but like you said, only in a boilerplate sort of way and I need to cleanup almost everything it writes.
- Sunhold 2y ago
  Look at the sample chain-of-thought for o1-preview under this blog post, for decoding "oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz". At this point, I think the "fancy autocomplete" comparisons are getting a little untenable. https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/ https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
  - bmitc 2y ago
    How exactly does a blog post from OpenAI about a preview release address my comment or make fancy autocomplete comparisons untenable?
    - Sunhold 2y ago
      It shows that the LLM is capable of reasoning.
      - drmindle12358 2y ago
        Dude, it's not the LLM that does the reasoning. Rather it's the layers and layers of scaffolding around LLM that simulate reasoning. The moment 'tooling' became a thing for LLM, it reminded me 'rules' for expert system which caused one of the AI winter. The number of 'tools' you need to solve real use cases will be untenable soon enough.
        trashtester 2y ago
        Well, I agree that the part that does the reasoning isn't an LLM in the naive form. But that "scaffolding" seems to be an integral part of the neural net that has been built. It's not some Python for-loop that has been built on top of the neural network to brute force the search pattern. If that part isn't part of the LLM, then o1 isn't really an LLM anymore, but a new kind of model. One that can do reasoning. And if we chose to call it an LLM, well then now LLM's can also do reasoning intrinsically.
        2y ago
- gilmore606 2y ago
  LLMs let the massively stupid and incompetent produce something that on the surface looks like a useful output. Most massively stupid incompetent people don't know they are that. You can work out the rest.

Kind of. My money is on we have reached the point of diminishing returns. A bit like Machine Learning. Now it's all about exploiting business cases for LLMs. That's the only reason I can think as to why gpt5 won't be coming anytime soon and when it does it will be very underwhelming and will be the first public signal that we are past LLM peak and perhaps people will stop finally assuming that LLMs will reach AGI within their lifetimes

bmitc 2y ago

I continue to be surprised by the talk of general artifical intelligence when it comes to LLMs. At their core, they are text predictors, and they're often pretty good at that. But anything beyond that, they are decidely unimpressive. I use Copilot on a daily basis, which uses GPT 4 in the backend. It's wrong so often that I only really use it for boilerplate autocomplete, which I still have to review. I've had colleagues brag about ChatGPT in terms of code it produces, but when I ask how long it took in terms of prompting, I'll get an answer of around a day, and that was even using fragments of my code to prompt it. But then I explain that it would take me probably less than an hour from scratch to do what it took them and ChatGPT a full day to do. So I just don't understand the hype. I'm using Copilot and ChatGPT 4. What is everyone else using that gives them this idea that AGI is just around the corner? AI isn't even here. It's just advanced autocomplete. I can't understand where the disconnect is.

berniedurfee 2y ago
Here now, you just need a few more ice cold glasses of the kool-aide. Drink up! LLMs are not on the path to AGI. They’re a really cool parlor trick and will be powerful tools for lots of tasks, but won’t be sci-fi cool. Copilot is useful and has definitely sped up coding, but like you said, only in a boilerplate sort of way and I need to cleanup almost everything it writes.
Sunhold 2y ago
Look at the sample chain-of-thought for o1-preview under this blog post, for decoding "oyekaijzdf aaptcg suaokybhai ouow aqht mynznvaatzacdfoulxxz". At this point, I think the "fancy autocomplete" comparisons are getting a little untenable. https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/ https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
- bmitc 2y ago
  How exactly does a blog post from OpenAI about a preview release address my comment or make fancy autocomplete comparisons untenable?
  - Sunhold 2y ago
    It shows that the LLM is capable of reasoning.
    - drmindle12358 2y ago
      Dude, it's not the LLM that does the reasoning. Rather it's the layers and layers of scaffolding around LLM that simulate reasoning. The moment 'tooling' became a thing for LLM, it reminded me 'rules' for expert system which caused one of the AI winter. The number of 'tools' you need to solve real use cases will be untenable soon enough.
      - trashtester 2y ago
        Well, I agree that the part that does the reasoning isn't an LLM in the naive form. But that "scaffolding" seems to be an integral part of the neural net that has been built. It's not some Python for-loop that has been built on top of the neural network to brute force the search pattern. If that part isn't part of the LLM, then o1 isn't really an LLM anymore, but a new kind of model. One that can do reasoning. And if we chose to call it an LLM, well then now LLM's can also do reasoning intrinsically.
        2y ago
gilmore606 2y ago
LLMs let the massively stupid and incompetent produce something that on the surface looks like a useful output. Most massively stupid incompetent people don't know they are that. You can work out the rest.