2 ms·
I take it you are referring to https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 Interestingly the
by chickenbig 2y ago
I take it you are referring to https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169
Interestingly the nuclear data implies that those (45% of) projects not in the tail (defined as >= 50% cost overrun) have a mean overrun of 17.33%.
120% = 0.45 * X% + 0.55 * 204% therefore X% = (120% - 0.55 * 204%)/0.45 = 17.33%