3 ms·

Feels like a lot of people who should know have been saying biotech for a while, but I’m unclear what big breaks are even being worked on. Not that targeted can

Feels like a lot of people who should know have been saying biotech for a while, but I’m unclear what big breaks are even being worked on. Not that targeted cancer therapies isn’t super cool and worthwhile work, but it does feel a successful result still basically fits the existing industry shape; it’s not the kind of thing that would be spawning entire new industries the way computers and the internet did.

dhosek 2y ago
I think a big part of that comes down to regulation when it comes to biotech, which, frankly, I think is a good thing. After all, skimping on software (usually) won’t kill anyone, but imagine how much worse things could have been with something like Theranos absent regulation.¹ ⸻ 1. For those rushing to point out that regulation didn’t stop Theranos, it might not have kept the fraud from starting, but it did keep it from continuing.
- mc32 2y ago
  Pointing out Theranos would be like pointing out the existence of double agents despite rigorous counter-measures. Things will happen; one wants them to happen less.
TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
The groundwork isn't there. Computers were the result of blending Maxwell, Boolean algebra, and some fairly obscure speculations about computability in the most abstract sense. There's nothing equivalent waiting for someone to industrialise it. AI is being hammered together out of bits and pieces, but there's no Grand Theory. Robotics is the same, but further behind. Bio is similar but maybe a little ahead. Physics and math just haven't primed the pump for another revolution.
- dTal 2y ago
  How do you know? The pump could be primed with all sorts of obscure, non-obvious things the importance of which only becomes evident after the fact when someone combines them.
- kens 2y ago
  I think the importance of Boolean algebra and computability theory to early computers is vastly overstated. I see no influence of computability theory on ENIAC, for instance. As for Boolean algebra, it seems more descriptive than useful for early computers. But I'm very interested if people have counterexamples.
wileydragonfly 2y ago
Millions of people, at all stages of the age curve, not dying or losing their marbles to diseases that can be treated by immunotherapy? I foresee many opportunities. Time will tell…

dhosek 2y ago

I think a big part of that comes down to regulation when it comes to biotech, which, frankly, I think is a good thing. After all, skimping on software (usually) won’t kill anyone, but imagine how much worse things could have been with something like Theranos absent regulation.¹ ⸻ 1. For those rushing to point out that regulation didn’t stop Theranos, it might not have kept the fraud from starting, but it did keep it from continuing.

mc32 2y ago
Pointing out Theranos would be like pointing out the existence of double agents despite rigorous counter-measures. Things will happen; one wants them to happen less.

TheOtherHobbes 2y ago

The groundwork isn't there. Computers were the result of blending Maxwell, Boolean algebra, and some fairly obscure speculations about computability in the most abstract sense. There's nothing equivalent waiting for someone to industrialise it. AI is being hammered together out of bits and pieces, but there's no Grand Theory. Robotics is the same, but further behind. Bio is similar but maybe a little ahead. Physics and math just haven't primed the pump for another revolution.

dTal 2y ago
How do you know? The pump could be primed with all sorts of obscure, non-obvious things the importance of which only becomes evident after the fact when someone combines them.
kens 2y ago
I think the importance of Boolean algebra and computability theory to early computers is vastly overstated. I see no influence of computability theory on ENIAC, for instance. As for Boolean algebra, it seems more descriptive than useful for early computers. But I'm very interested if people have counterexamples.

wileydragonfly 2y ago

Millions of people, at all stages of the age curve, not dying or losing their marbles to diseases that can be treated by immunotherapy? I foresee many opportunities. Time will tell…