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I think diminishing returns, as the author starts to allude to near the end of the post, is a big reason. To take the example of word processing, the biggest im

I think diminishing returns, as the author starts to allude to near the end of the post, is a big reason. To take the example of word processing, the biggest improvement to my workflow of the past 10-15 years is probably either being able to collaborate on documents simultaneously or to be able to view them on a phone. I actually edit documents simultaneously quite a lot, but I’m not sure it’s a huge productivity boost or that common.

bfung 2y ago
I’m also in camp The Great Divergence. Learning and using the tools to become multiples more productive is relatively hard, still. In programming, most people still struggle with syntax. The few that get past struggle with conciseness. The few that get past end up managing everyone else instead of solving problems. LLMs move maybe a few percent up the ladder, but hardly enough to matter atm. In other fields, there’d need to be breakthroughs, otherwise it’s literally scale. Ex: manufacturing is labor intensive and/or capital intensive, w/o a breakthrough like… robots.
- actuallyalys 2y ago
  I understood The Great Divergence as meaning there are large performance gains, but only for certain people, who are better at resisting distractions brought on by new technology. But my conclusion is closer to there being large performance gains but only for a tiny minority of tasks that happen to really benefit from them and more modest gains otherwise. E.g., smart phones are a great technical achievement, but they’re not a huge improvement most of the time—we already had laptops for most portable productivity needs.
  - lotsofpulp 2y ago
    Portable productivity took a huge leap forward with mobile broadband, which came hand in hand with smartphones. Laptops without access to the internet are far less productive for most people. There are so many examples of tablets and smartphones with internet connectivity replacing other machines and/or making them resilient. Point of sale systems, hotel room key, ticketing systems, translation services, navigation from any point to any point, whether it be walking, bicycling, driving, or public transit.

bfung 2y ago

I’m also in camp The Great Divergence. Learning and using the tools to become multiples more productive is relatively hard, still. In programming, most people still struggle with syntax. The few that get past struggle with conciseness. The few that get past end up managing everyone else instead of solving problems. LLMs move maybe a few percent up the ladder, but hardly enough to matter atm. In other fields, there’d need to be breakthroughs, otherwise it’s literally scale. Ex: manufacturing is labor intensive and/or capital intensive, w/o a breakthrough like… robots.

actuallyalys 2y ago
I understood The Great Divergence as meaning there are large performance gains, but only for certain people, who are better at resisting distractions brought on by new technology. But my conclusion is closer to there being large performance gains but only for a tiny minority of tasks that happen to really benefit from them and more modest gains otherwise. E.g., smart phones are a great technical achievement, but they’re not a huge improvement most of the time—we already had laptops for most portable productivity needs.
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  Portable productivity took a huge leap forward with mobile broadband, which came hand in hand with smartphones. Laptops without access to the internet are far less productive for most people. There are so many examples of tablets and smartphones with internet connectivity replacing other machines and/or making them resilient. Point of sale systems, hotel room key, ticketing systems, translation services, navigation from any point to any point, whether it be walking, bicycling, driving, or public transit.