4 ms·

Couldn't hurt to vote for the party who aren't Russian assets

mensetmanusman 2y ago
Bayesian priors need updating
Krssst 2y ago
Seems that a lot of people prefer the approach of "surrender absolutely everything to Putin preemptively". Granted America is at basically zero risk of a Russian invasion, but letting Putin roams free means that Ukraine would only be the first step. I don't really know what Putin's Europe once he gets it all would look like but I don't expect human rights to be a part of it.
- protomolecule 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Because it's what the aggressor has been saying all along: "That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-floats-idea-pushing-back-polands-borders-2023-02-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-floats...
    - protomolecule 2y ago
      It's a random utterance written in a personal telegram channel by a man with little real power. Using it as a basis for such a far reaching conclusion about Putin's intent to conquer all of Europe is quite strange to put it politely.
      - mopsi 2y ago
        That's merely a tactic for making threats with plausible deniability. Message gets transmitted, but in a way that shifts authorship away from its true source. Trump uses "people are saying" in this manner, Putin has an actual lackey in flesh doing the talking.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        The grandparent was mistaken about an intent to conquer "all" of Europe - but similar threats have been made against Poland and the Baltics (as Putin's appetite for direct annexation seems to be limited to territories of the former Russian Empire). Communicating through sockpuppets like Medvedev is exactly how a gaslighter par excellence like Putin operates. And Medvedev isn't just any Kremlin flacky, but was Putin's nominal successor at one point. To pretend to not be aware that his messaging on the subject is ultimately Putin's is quite strange, to put it politely.
        protomolecule 2y ago
        >Communicating through sockpuppets like Medvedev is exactly how a gaslighter par excellence like Putin operates. Quite the opposite, in fact. Putin's Munich speech in 2007 was as direct as it gets. Anyway, your suggestion that Putin telegraphs his true intent (to occupy Poland and Baltics) through sockpuppet doesn't make any sense -- why would anyone do that? Medvedev playing bad cop routine -- that I can imagine, but what you are suggesting is quite strange, to put it politely.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Nothing strange at all about it. It's just how thugs operate.
        protomolecule 2y ago
        Without answering the question why, your comment makes no sense.
- cupcakecommons 2y ago
  Which people?
  - Krssst 2y ago
    People saying helping Ukraine should be avoided.
    - cupcakecommons 2y ago
      The people advocating the "approach of surrender absolutely everything to Putin preemptively" and "people saying helping Ukraine should be avoided" are very different - and are both still pretty strong interpretations. Instead of looking at cartoonish arguments people have - what's the best argument you've come across for not supplying Ukraine with weapons? Have you heard any that seem reasonable at all to you? Which is the most reasonable?
ImJamal 2y ago
I'm confused. Surely if one side is a Russian asset it would be less likely we go to war with them?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Surely if one side is a Russian asset it would be less likely we go to war with them? Difficult to estimate because the situation is de-stabilising--the assurances of MAD no longer hold if one side thinks it can prevent the other from launching.
  - ImJamal 2y ago
    Why would Russia attack the US if the US was under their thumb? It makes no sense. MAD prevents countries who are opposed to each from attacking each other. The reason the US and the UK don't go to war is not because of MAD.
    - cupcakecommons 2y ago
      Not sure it has to make sense. It just has to convince people long enough for people who are driving for war to get their war. Hardly any of it seems to make any sense at all.

Bayesian priors need updating

Seems that a lot of people prefer the approach of "surrender absolutely everything to Putin preemptively". Granted America is at basically zero risk of a Russian invasion, but letting Putin roams free means that Ukraine would only be the first step. I don't really know what Putin's Europe once he gets it all would look like but I don't expect human rights to be a part of it.

protomolecule 2y ago
[flagged]
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Because it's what the aggressor has been saying all along: "That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-floats-idea-pushing-back-polands-borders-2023-02-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-floats...
  - protomolecule 2y ago
    It's a random utterance written in a personal telegram channel by a man with little real power. Using it as a basis for such a far reaching conclusion about Putin's intent to conquer all of Europe is quite strange to put it politely.
    - mopsi 2y ago
      That's merely a tactic for making threats with plausible deniability. Message gets transmitted, but in a way that shifts authorship away from its true source. Trump uses "people are saying" in this manner, Putin has an actual lackey in flesh doing the talking.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      The grandparent was mistaken about an intent to conquer "all" of Europe - but similar threats have been made against Poland and the Baltics (as Putin's appetite for direct annexation seems to be limited to territories of the former Russian Empire). Communicating through sockpuppets like Medvedev is exactly how a gaslighter par excellence like Putin operates. And Medvedev isn't just any Kremlin flacky, but was Putin's nominal successor at one point. To pretend to not be aware that his messaging on the subject is ultimately Putin's is quite strange, to put it politely.
      - protomolecule 2y ago
        >Communicating through sockpuppets like Medvedev is exactly how a gaslighter par excellence like Putin operates. Quite the opposite, in fact. Putin's Munich speech in 2007 was as direct as it gets. Anyway, your suggestion that Putin telegraphs his true intent (to occupy Poland and Baltics) through sockpuppet doesn't make any sense -- why would anyone do that? Medvedev playing bad cop routine -- that I can imagine, but what you are suggesting is quite strange, to put it politely.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Nothing strange at all about it. It's just how thugs operate.
        protomolecule 2y ago
        Without answering the question why, your comment makes no sense.
cupcakecommons 2y ago
Which people?
- Krssst 2y ago
  People saying helping Ukraine should be avoided.
  - cupcakecommons 2y ago
    The people advocating the "approach of surrender absolutely everything to Putin preemptively" and "people saying helping Ukraine should be avoided" are very different - and are both still pretty strong interpretations. Instead of looking at cartoonish arguments people have - what's the best argument you've come across for not supplying Ukraine with weapons? Have you heard any that seem reasonable at all to you? Which is the most reasonable?

ImJamal 2y ago

I'm confused. Surely if one side is a Russian asset it would be less likely we go to war with them?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Surely if one side is a Russian asset it would be less likely we go to war with them? Difficult to estimate because the situation is de-stabilising--the assurances of MAD no longer hold if one side thinks it can prevent the other from launching.
- ImJamal 2y ago
  Why would Russia attack the US if the US was under their thumb? It makes no sense. MAD prevents countries who are opposed to each from attacking each other. The reason the US and the UK don't go to war is not because of MAD.
  - cupcakecommons 2y ago
    Not sure it has to make sense. It just has to convince people long enough for people who are driving for war to get their war. Hardly any of it seems to make any sense at all.