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The future will be abundant, because deep learning works. To achieve that, we need to be calm, but cautious. And, we need to fund infra (chips and power) so tha
by tikkun 2y ago
The future will be abundant, because deep learning works. To achieve that, we need to be calm, but cautious. And, we need to fund infra (chips and power) so that AGI isn't limited to the ultra-wealthy.
My take:
* Foom/doom isn't helpful. But, calm cautiousness is. If you're acting from a place of fear and emotional dysregulation, you'll make ineffective choices. If you get calm and regulated first, and then take actions, they'll be more effective. (This is my issue with AGI-risk people, they often seem triggered/fear/alarm-driven rather than calm but cautious)
* Piece is kind of a manifesto for raising money for AI infra
* Sam's done a podcast before about meditation where he talked about similar themes of "prudence without fear" and the dangers of "deep fear and panic and anxiety" and instead the importance of staying "calm and centered during hard and stressful moments" - responding, not reacting (strong +1)
* It's no accident that o1 is very good at math physics and programming. It'll keep getting much better here. Presumably this is the path for AGI to lead to abundance and cheaper energy by "solving physics"
- bbor 2y agoWell put! I would disagree on two fundamental points, tho: 1. If you honestly think that millions/billions of people are at serious risk of avoidable harm that everyone else is ignoring, "calm down" can be a hard dictum to follow. Sam Altman has won, it's easy for him psychologically to say "well, lets just stick to the status quo and do our best every day and it'll probably work out". Made-in-house bias is strongest when "in-house" is your own mind, after all. 2. Your scare quotes makes it seem like you might agree, but: physics is the study of the physical world, thinking it can be 'solved' is like thinking mathematics, psychology, or anthropology can be 'solved'. It's fundamentally anti-science and very, very dangerous to be talking like that. Truth isn't absolutely relative, but science also isn't a collection of facts written in stone that we need to finish unearthing; it's a collection of intellectual tools.