4 ms·

Yes, it seems the only projects that have larger cost overruns than nuclear power stations is dealing with nuclear waste.

chickenbig 2y ago
I take it you are referring to https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 Interestingly the nuclear data implies that those (45% of) projects not in the tail (defined as >= 50% cost overrun) have a mean overrun of 17.33%. 120% = 0.45 * X% + 0.55 * 204% therefore X% = (120% - 0.55 * 204%)/0.45 = 17.33%
chickenbig 2y ago
Don't forget the Olympics, with a format designed to minimise the learnings. Note that the point of the article was that the design is being proven, lessons are being learnt, and the skills of individuals and organisations developed, which reduces the risk of overruns etc.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  Hasn't it already greatly overrun the initial promises? I mean, that's the whole reason France is crying for relief here from the UK. Anyway, claims that nuclear will show good experience effects this time, for sure, are to be treated with skepticism.
  - chickenbig 2y ago
    > Hasn't it already greatly overrun the initial promises? Hinkley Point C got the green light in 2016 with an estimated £18bn build cost The most recent estimates put costs as high as £34bn at 2015 prices, £46bn in today’s money. I believe the range is £31–35 billion in 2015 prices, so between 75% and 100% overrun. > that's the whole reason France is crying for relief here from the UK. The overrun combined with COVID combined with the spike in inflation and also CNG being frozen out of the UK nuclear market/cooling of relationship with China. > claims that nuclear will show good experience effects this time, for sure, are to be treated with skepticism. Agreed, which is why the second unit at HPC will be interesting.

4 ms·

Yes, it seems the only projects that have larger cost overruns than nuclear power stations is dealing with nuclear waste.

by tonyedgecombe 2y ago

chickenbig 2y ago
I take it you are referring to https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 https://x.com/BentFlyvbjerg/status/1662016016493191169 Interestingly the nuclear data implies that those (45% of) projects not in the tail (defined as >= 50% cost overrun) have a mean overrun of 17.33%. 120% = 0.45 * X% + 0.55 * 204% therefore X% = (120% - 0.55 * 204%)/0.45 = 17.33%
chickenbig 2y ago
Don't forget the Olympics, with a format designed to minimise the learnings. Note that the point of the article was that the design is being proven, lessons are being learnt, and the skills of individuals and organisations developed, which reduces the risk of overruns etc.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  Hasn't it already greatly overrun the initial promises? I mean, that's the whole reason France is crying for relief here from the UK. Anyway, claims that nuclear will show good experience effects this time, for sure, are to be treated with skepticism.
  - chickenbig 2y ago
    > Hasn't it already greatly overrun the initial promises? Hinkley Point C got the green light in 2016 with an estimated £18bn build cost The most recent estimates put costs as high as £34bn at 2015 prices, £46bn in today’s money. I believe the range is £31–35 billion in 2015 prices, so between 75% and 100% overrun. > that's the whole reason France is crying for relief here from the UK. The overrun combined with COVID combined with the spike in inflation and also CNG being frozen out of the UK nuclear market/cooling of relationship with China. > claims that nuclear will show good experience effects this time, for sure, are to be treated with skepticism. Agreed, which is why the second unit at HPC will be interesting.