4 ms·

Looking at the numbers for this, I don't see how it is better or even competitive at today's cost. Not taking into account the operating costs and decommissioni

by oezi 2y ago

Looking at the numbers for this, I don't see how it is better or even competitive at today's cost. Not taking into account the operating costs and decommissioning costs. Off-shore wind is still scaling to become cheaper and cheaper. In 30 years it might cost much less. How can Nuclear compete?

blitzar 2y ago
> How can Nuclear compete? A factory built plant or any economies of scale. Start a company with a mobile workforce and go country to country building 5 or more large scale reactors in parallel in each country. Small scale reactors (again factory built) are the other alternative. They would have to be installed in a 'farm' together for security reasons.
- chickenbig 2y ago
  Even 4 stick-built reactors in a row is pretty good; look at Barakah in UAE, South Korea, China and Canada (Darlington, Pickering, Bruce).
chickenbig 2y ago
> and decommissioning costs https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33792 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33792 So perhaps 1B-2B USD a plant. 2,000,000,000/(60 * 1,600 * 365 * 24 * .9) = 2.6 USD/MWh > Off-shore wind is still scaling to become cheaper and cheaper. Why did the UK have to raise the maximum bid price for the Contract For Difference AR6? Wind farm costs have exploded, and turbine manufacturers are having reliability issues. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-issues-with-siemens-gamesas-wind-turbines-2023-06-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-issues-with... https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vineyard-wind-incident-was-not-first-time-ge-vernova-wind-turbine-came-apart-2024-07-18/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vineyard-wind-incide...
- blitzar 2y ago
  > Why did the UK have to raise the maximum bid price for the Contract For Difference AR6? Bidders have to sell the government the electricity at the strike price. They pushed up the strike price to £54.23/MWh from a previous of £37.35/MWh with a current market price of £70-£80/MWh. Nobody was going to offer to sell electricity for £37.35 for the next 5 years in a market where you can currently sell it for £70 - £100 (and where you could sell it for £300-£500 when the crisis occurred in 2021 / 2022).
  - chickenbig 2y ago
    > Nobody was going to offer to sell electricity for £37.35 for the next 5 years in a market where you can currently sell it for £70 - £100 The beauty of the CfD scheme is that you can choose when to start using it. But once you're in you're in, you're in until the end of the 15 years. https://www.current-news.co.uk/significant-commercial-incentive-for-offshore-wind-farms-to-delay-cfd-activation/#:~:text=However%2C%20some%20offshore%20wind%20generators,additional%20revenue%20to%20the%20LCCC https://www.current-news.co.uk/significant-commercial-incent.... In truth I think it will be a mug's game to build offshore wind without a CfD. See https://www.squeaky.energy/blog/the-unintended-consequences-of-negative-power-prices-in-the-uk https://www.squeaky.energy/blog/the-unintended-consequences-... for a view of what the day-ahead auction will turn into in a few years.

by oezi 2y ago

blitzar 2y ago

> How can Nuclear compete? A factory built plant or any economies of scale. Start a company with a mobile workforce and go country to country building 5 or more large scale reactors in parallel in each country. Small scale reactors (again factory built) are the other alternative. They would have to be installed in a 'farm' together for security reasons.

chickenbig 2y ago
Even 4 stick-built reactors in a row is pretty good; look at Barakah in UAE, South Korea, China and Canada (Darlington, Pickering, Bruce).

chickenbig 2y ago

> and decommissioning costs https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33792 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33792 So perhaps 1B-2B USD a plant. 2,000,000,000/(60 * 1,600 * 365 * 24 * .9) = 2.6 USD/MWh > Off-shore wind is still scaling to become cheaper and cheaper. Why did the UK have to raise the maximum bid price for the Contract For Difference AR6? Wind farm costs have exploded, and turbine manufacturers are having reliability issues. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-issues-with-siemens-gamesas-wind-turbines-2023-06-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-issues-with... https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vineyard-wind-incident-was-not-first-time-ge-vernova-wind-turbine-came-apart-2024-07-18/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vineyard-wind-incide...

blitzar 2y ago
> Why did the UK have to raise the maximum bid price for the Contract For Difference AR6? Bidders have to sell the government the electricity at the strike price. They pushed up the strike price to £54.23/MWh from a previous of £37.35/MWh with a current market price of £70-£80/MWh. Nobody was going to offer to sell electricity for £37.35 for the next 5 years in a market where you can currently sell it for £70 - £100 (and where you could sell it for £300-£500 when the crisis occurred in 2021 / 2022).
- chickenbig 2y ago
  > Nobody was going to offer to sell electricity for £37.35 for the next 5 years in a market where you can currently sell it for £70 - £100 The beauty of the CfD scheme is that you can choose when to start using it. But once you're in you're in, you're in until the end of the 15 years. https://www.current-news.co.uk/significant-commercial-incentive-for-offshore-wind-farms-to-delay-cfd-activation/#:~:text=However%2C%20some%20offshore%20wind%20generators,additional%20revenue%20to%20the%20LCCC https://www.current-news.co.uk/significant-commercial-incent.... In truth I think it will be a mug's game to build offshore wind without a CfD. See https://www.squeaky.energy/blog/the-unintended-consequences-of-negative-power-prices-in-the-uk https://www.squeaky.energy/blog/the-unintended-consequences-... for a view of what the day-ahead auction will turn into in a few years.