I agree that “in two years” is probably not going to happen. But in four or six? I think that’s a more decent chance. Musk/SpaceX tend to give overly optimistic

I agree that “in two years” is probably not going to happen. But in four or six? I think that’s a more decent chance. Musk/SpaceX tend to give overly optimistic timelines - but they get there eventually. But I think your claim that there will be a big mess if they try to catch is dubious. My understanding is that SuperHeavy returns on a trajectory to crash into the Gulf of Mexico, and only diverts to the launch site at the last possible moment if its computers conclude it is safe to do so. By the time of the catch, it will (intentionally) be almost out of fuel, so that will limit the scale of any explosion in the worst case scenario. And now they’ve got the new launch tower, so even if they damage the current one, they should be able to use the new one while they repair the current one - I doubt any explosion will be big enough to cause serious damage to both launch towers.