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Why is it a dead end? I agree that it should be, but it seems the entire world is walking back the commitment to a full transition to EVs.

by abenga 2y ago

thebruce87m 2y ago
https://www.edie.net/one-in-seven-new-cars-worldwide-is-now-electric/?amp=true https://www.edie.net/one-in-seven-new-cars-worldwide-is-now-... > One in seven new car sales worldwide is now electric > Year-to-date figures show that nearly 10.6 million EVs have been sold globally as of July 2024, marking a 16.3% increase compared to the same period last year. What constitutes “walking back”?
- yardstick 2y ago
  Not the op but in NZ there has been a significant drop in demand due to removal of subsidies and introduction of a distance-based tax (road user charge) for EVs. https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/09/15/car-importers-stuck-with-excess-evs-weak-demand/ https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/09/15/car-importers-stuck-with-... “In 2023 January through August, one in four new light passenger vehicles sold were EVs. Fast forward to 2024 and EVs make up just one in 11 new light passenger vehicles sold”
  - thebruce87m 2y ago
    The original claim was for the “entire world” which is why I specifically used global stats.
    - yardstick 2y ago
      Maybe not every single country, sure. In the EU sales are sluggish. https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/05/19/europes-wobbling-ev-mandate-will-force-hard-choices/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/05/19/europes-w... “Current sales of EVs in Europe have stalled at just over 2 million a year, as early adopters and corporate purchasing peaked out. Schmidt Automotive Research said during the opening third of 2024 Western Europe EV market share stalled at 14.4% compared with the same period last year, according to its provisional data.”
      - thebruce87m 2y ago
        It’s fascinating the language used around EV sales. You have used “sluggish” where others might have used “stable”. In the past we had articles saying sales were “slowing” when in fact they were growing, just not growing as fast. There are other regions that are growing, but I see little relevance to the original point unless people expected continued growth in every region with no blips?
- freetanga 2y ago
  I need to check that source but I guess is heavily per country. In Southern Europe is under 5%, south from the US border between 0 to 1 % (source: per country Car Makers Association report) Globally, if I recall, you need 20 years to replace the whole global fleet (so around 5% replacement rate). Let’s assume this global number is fixed (installed base is growing, as more vehicles are being created that destroyed, actually) 1/7 is 15%. 15% of 5% is 0,75%. So this means that every year 0,75% of global installed base is replaced by EVs. So 130y for full replacement? Yes, the 1/7 weight will increase. But so will expand base. Even if suddenly today every car made now on the planet is EV only, iCE will still be around for 20-30 years.
  - freetanga 2y ago
    Not to pile on, but the linked article you presented backs their data on New AutoMotive’s Global Electric Vehicle Tracker, a UK based group fostering EV adoption. NAGEVT site only shows data for UK, is unclear which data sources they used, and whether they added PHEV (still ICEs) into the mix. Don’t mean to come obnoxious, I just spent a few weeks researching the topic for 10 countries and my data differs a lot from theirs.
- abenga 2y ago
  > What constitutes “walking back”? Legally+Economically. After seeing how badly their cars were doing against Chinese EVs, it seems the EV-only mandates in the EU and US are on shaky ground; only heavy tariffs on imported cars seem to be giving local producers a chance. I do not think they will figure it out by the 2030-ish targets, and bet that European and American companies will be allowed to sell combustion engine cars after that. > marking a 16.3% increase compared to the same period last year This is buoyed a lot by growth in China (which is not nothing, I guess), but growth in Europe and the Americas is slowing.
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    The EU and California targets are 2035; not aware of any large market going for a full ban earlier than that?
    - abenga 2y ago
      Even 2035 is not happening. Politically, parties that are not enthusiastic about climate change mitigation are gaining ground in Europe. A lot of western car companies are scaling back their ev targets, and announcing more ICE car research (like this article we are discussing). Those bans will keep getting postponed/cancelled the closer they come.

Why is it a dead end? I agree that it should be, but it seems the entire world is walking back the commitment to a full transition to EVs.

by abenga 2y ago

Why is it a dead end? I agree that it should be, but it seems the entire world is walking back the commitment to a full transition to EVs.

thebruce87m 2y ago

https://www.edie.net/one-in-seven-new-cars-worldwide-is-now-electric/?amp=true https://www.edie.net/one-in-seven-new-cars-worldwide-is-now-... > One in seven new car sales worldwide is now electric > Year-to-date figures show that nearly 10.6 million EVs have been sold globally as of July 2024, marking a 16.3% increase compared to the same period last year. What constitutes “walking back”?

yardstick 2y ago
Not the op but in NZ there has been a significant drop in demand due to removal of subsidies and introduction of a distance-based tax (road user charge) for EVs. https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/09/15/car-importers-stuck-with-excess-evs-weak-demand/ https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/09/15/car-importers-stuck-with-... “In 2023 January through August, one in four new light passenger vehicles sold were EVs. Fast forward to 2024 and EVs make up just one in 11 new light passenger vehicles sold”
- thebruce87m 2y ago
  The original claim was for the “entire world” which is why I specifically used global stats.
  - yardstick 2y ago
    Maybe not every single country, sure. In the EU sales are sluggish. https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/05/19/europes-wobbling-ev-mandate-will-force-hard-choices/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/05/19/europes-w... “Current sales of EVs in Europe have stalled at just over 2 million a year, as early adopters and corporate purchasing peaked out. Schmidt Automotive Research said during the opening third of 2024 Western Europe EV market share stalled at 14.4% compared with the same period last year, according to its provisional data.”
    - thebruce87m 2y ago
      It’s fascinating the language used around EV sales. You have used “sluggish” where others might have used “stable”. In the past we had articles saying sales were “slowing” when in fact they were growing, just not growing as fast. There are other regions that are growing, but I see little relevance to the original point unless people expected continued growth in every region with no blips?
freetanga 2y ago
I need to check that source but I guess is heavily per country. In Southern Europe is under 5%, south from the US border between 0 to 1 % (source: per country Car Makers Association report) Globally, if I recall, you need 20 years to replace the whole global fleet (so around 5% replacement rate). Let’s assume this global number is fixed (installed base is growing, as more vehicles are being created that destroyed, actually) 1/7 is 15%. 15% of 5% is 0,75%. So this means that every year 0,75% of global installed base is replaced by EVs. So 130y for full replacement? Yes, the 1/7 weight will increase. But so will expand base. Even if suddenly today every car made now on the planet is EV only, iCE will still be around for 20-30 years.
- freetanga 2y ago
  Not to pile on, but the linked article you presented backs their data on New AutoMotive’s Global Electric Vehicle Tracker, a UK based group fostering EV adoption. NAGEVT site only shows data for UK, is unclear which data sources they used, and whether they added PHEV (still ICEs) into the mix. Don’t mean to come obnoxious, I just spent a few weeks researching the topic for 10 countries and my data differs a lot from theirs.
abenga 2y ago
> What constitutes “walking back”? Legally+Economically. After seeing how badly their cars were doing against Chinese EVs, it seems the EV-only mandates in the EU and US are on shaky ground; only heavy tariffs on imported cars seem to be giving local producers a chance. I do not think they will figure it out by the 2030-ish targets, and bet that European and American companies will be allowed to sell combustion engine cars after that. > marking a 16.3% increase compared to the same period last year This is buoyed a lot by growth in China (which is not nothing, I guess), but growth in Europe and the Americas is slowing.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  The EU and California targets are 2035; not aware of any large market going for a full ban earlier than that?
  - abenga 2y ago
    Even 2035 is not happening. Politically, parties that are not enthusiastic about climate change mitigation are gaining ground in Europe. A lot of western car companies are scaling back their ev targets, and announcing more ICE car research (like this article we are discussing). Those bans will keep getting postponed/cancelled the closer they come.