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Yes, there was a “rebound” effect where isolation during COVID reduced herd immunity to other respiratory viruses. When people were brought back into close cont

Yes, there was a “rebound” effect where isolation during COVID reduced herd immunity to other respiratory viruses. When people were brought back into close contact, the result was a “speed run” through three years of viruses in the space of one year. It’s a bit more complex than that but you get the gist.

s1artibartfast 2y ago
I think the majority of the effect is that and confirmation bias, but I think there could be some marginal effect. Im hybrid with days in office counted and a performance consideration. When I have used by WFH days then get sick, I 100% take it to the office. I dont know if this surpasses the effect of fewer people in the office, but I think it is possible.
laserlight 2y ago
> isolation during COVID reduced herd immunity to other respiratory viruses. Do you have any reference explaining this? As far as I know, respiratory viruses (flu, RSV, COVID-19) are difficult to develop immunity for because of their rapid evolution cycles. The quote above sounds counter-intuitive to me.
- jiggawatts 2y ago
  Disclaimer: I'm not even remotely a biologist, and this is a vague memory of some announcements (albeit by reputable scientific sources) a year ago. This gist of what I remember was that viruses mutate some "percentage" of their envelope on average annually. It's somewhat predictable for more than six months into the future, which is how flu vaccines are developed and manufactured ahead of time before the next flu season. This unpredictability accumulates, so after three years the viruses become nearly totally unpredictable, not just to vaccine manufacturers, but also to the human immune system. If you get the flu every year, each year the new flu might only be 30% different than the one before, so you have some lingering immunity to it. If you catch it every year, you'll generally get mild cases and refresh your immunity each time. If you skip three years, the viruses become 66% different, which might be sufficient to evade your immune system and give you a really bad case. There were also a few coincidental compounding issues recently, such as particularly virulent strains of viruses such as RSV going around.
terminatornet 2y ago
in 20 years people will still be saying lockdowns in 2020/2021 caused immunity debt.

s1artibartfast 2y ago

I think the majority of the effect is that and confirmation bias, but I think there could be some marginal effect. Im hybrid with days in office counted and a performance consideration. When I have used by WFH days then get sick, I 100% take it to the office. I dont know if this surpasses the effect of fewer people in the office, but I think it is possible.

laserlight 2y ago

> isolation during COVID reduced herd immunity to other respiratory viruses. Do you have any reference explaining this? As far as I know, respiratory viruses (flu, RSV, COVID-19) are difficult to develop immunity for because of their rapid evolution cycles. The quote above sounds counter-intuitive to me.

jiggawatts 2y ago
Disclaimer: I'm not even remotely a biologist, and this is a vague memory of some announcements (albeit by reputable scientific sources) a year ago. This gist of what I remember was that viruses mutate some "percentage" of their envelope on average annually. It's somewhat predictable for more than six months into the future, which is how flu vaccines are developed and manufactured ahead of time before the next flu season. This unpredictability accumulates, so after three years the viruses become nearly totally unpredictable, not just to vaccine manufacturers, but also to the human immune system. If you get the flu every year, each year the new flu might only be 30% different than the one before, so you have some lingering immunity to it. If you catch it every year, you'll generally get mild cases and refresh your immunity each time. If you skip three years, the viruses become 66% different, which might be sufficient to evade your immune system and give you a really bad case. There were also a few coincidental compounding issues recently, such as particularly virulent strains of viruses such as RSV going around.

terminatornet 2y ago

in 20 years people will still be saying lockdowns in 2020/2021 caused immunity debt.