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China will block this deal from ever happening.

by osnium123 2y ago

electronbeam 2y ago
What would motivate this
- Arn_Thor 2y ago
  What’s bad for US semiconductor manufacturing (I.e. a poor and cash starved Intel) buys China more time to catch up to frontier fab tech. If Qualcomm buys Intel, the optimistic scenario (for the US) is a stronger domestic player.
  - osnium123 2y ago
    Yes. This would also give more volume for the existing Intel factories.
  - qwytw 2y ago
    > stronger domestic player Is it though? Qualcomm is more likely to just strip Intel for parts than to turn it around and we'll just end up with more market concentration and less competition.
    - Arn_Thor 2y ago
      I did say “the optimistic scenario”, not “the only/likely scenario”
  - electronbeam 2y ago
    If that were true they’d denial-of-service every possible merger
    - kube-system 2y ago
      Geopolitically you can't ixnay everything, you've got to pick your battles.
- pwython 2y ago
  "So, why is Qualcomm under so much pressure? China is one significant reason. China is one of their critical worldwide markets and both the US and China governments seem to be increasing pressure on various US companies, including Apple, Qualcomm and Google." https://www.rcrwireless.com/20230911/uncategorized/kagan-how-qualcomm-is-dealing-with-growing-china-problem https://www.rcrwireless.com/20230911/uncategorized/kagan-how...
- quantum_state 2y ago
  From some perspective, governments of the big markets are like gangsters…
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ectospheno 2y ago
How exactly would a foreign power block two US companies from merging when it has no significant stock holding in either?
- osnium123 2y ago
  Chinese regulators have a say because both companies do business in China.
- onepointsixC 2y ago
  Same way China blocked Intel from acquiring Tower Semiconductor.
  - wahern 2y ago
    TIL: https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-walk-away-54-bln-acquisition-tower-semiconductor-sources-2023-08-16/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-walk-away-54-bln-ac...
- mlyle 2y ago
  Same way Europe exercises outsized antitrust influence in the US: threatening to fine US entities, and if necessary deny them access to the European market. It would be tricky, though, because my sense is that China still needs Intel/Qualcomm more than they need China. At the same time, it would be pretty deadly to be denied access to that market and your products subject to excess tariffs if imported by others.
  - shortsunblack 2y ago
    To the poster, Europe does not exercise outsized antitrust influence in the US. Many of these companies have their tax residency in the EU. There is no need to "deny" anything. If the company gets fined and it refuses to pay the fine, EU seizes the money in one of many bank accounts in Europe.
    - mlyle 2y ago

China will block this deal from ever happening.

electronbeam 2y ago

What would motivate this

Arn_Thor 2y ago
What’s bad for US semiconductor manufacturing (I.e. a poor and cash starved Intel) buys China more time to catch up to frontier fab tech. If Qualcomm buys Intel, the optimistic scenario (for the US) is a stronger domestic player.
- osnium123 2y ago
  Yes. This would also give more volume for the existing Intel factories.
- qwytw 2y ago
  > stronger domestic player Is it though? Qualcomm is more likely to just strip Intel for parts than to turn it around and we'll just end up with more market concentration and less competition.
  - Arn_Thor 2y ago
    I did say “the optimistic scenario”, not “the only/likely scenario”
- electronbeam 2y ago
  If that were true they’d denial-of-service every possible merger
  - kube-system 2y ago
    Geopolitically you can't ixnay everything, you've got to pick your battles.
pwython 2y ago
"So, why is Qualcomm under so much pressure? China is one significant reason. China is one of their critical worldwide markets and both the US and China governments seem to be increasing pressure on various US companies, including Apple, Qualcomm and Google." https://www.rcrwireless.com/20230911/uncategorized/kagan-how-qualcomm-is-dealing-with-growing-china-problem https://www.rcrwireless.com/20230911/uncategorized/kagan-how...
quantum_state 2y ago
From some perspective, governments of the big markets are like gangsters…

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

ectospheno 2y ago

How exactly would a foreign power block two US companies from merging when it has no significant stock holding in either?

osnium123 2y ago
Chinese regulators have a say because both companies do business in China.
onepointsixC 2y ago
Same way China blocked Intel from acquiring Tower Semiconductor.
- wahern 2y ago
  TIL: https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-walk-away-54-bln-acquisition-tower-semiconductor-sources-2023-08-16/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-walk-away-54-bln-ac...
mlyle 2y ago
Same way Europe exercises outsized antitrust influence in the US: threatening to fine US entities, and if necessary deny them access to the European market. It would be tricky, though, because my sense is that China still needs Intel/Qualcomm more than they need China. At the same time, it would be pretty deadly to be denied access to that market and your products subject to excess tariffs if imported by others.
- shortsunblack 2y ago
  To the poster, Europe does not exercise outsized antitrust influence in the US. Many of these companies have their tax residency in the EU. There is no need to "deny" anything. If the company gets fined and it refuses to pay the fine, EU seizes the money in one of many bank accounts in Europe.
  - mlyle 2y ago