What people keep underestimating are several things: - learning effects keep making existing battery chemistries and panels cheaper. This shouldn't come as a s

What people keep underestimating are several things: - learning effects keep making existing battery chemistries and panels cheaper. This shouldn't come as a surprise if you know anything about manufacturing. But essentially any study, report, etc. that assumes cost to be a constant is 100% certified bullshit. And there have been some notable reports that should have anticipated that that didn't. E.g. most of what is published by the IEA. - there is still a lot of potential coming out research into new technology. And contrary to the popular belief, a lot of that makes it to market and then starts making an impact. Energy density is improving. What's currently on the road is nowhere near the theoretical maximum. Technology is hard to predict but a very safe prediction is that stagnation is not happening any time soon. So, anything that assumes energy densities, efficiencies, etc. will freeze at their 2024 levels is going to be wrong as well. - Dropping cost opens up new use cases and increased demand. Elon Musk going to Australia and putting some megapacks down to save the day is only seven years ago. Very few people predicted that. That's now a multi billion dollar business that is disrupting grids all over the world. E.g. gas plants are being reduced to expensive peaker plants because of this unexpected use case. Including some recently opened ones. My bold prediction is that we are living through an energy revolution that will completely change everything over the next few decades. We've seen nothing yet. Just extrapolating current trends, an order of magnitude improvement along several dimensions seems likely. And why stop there? Solar panel cost (especially including installation), battery cost, battery energy density, battery longevity, battery charging speeds, etc. Those are just some of the more obvious ones.