4 ms·

I think you're just seeing the results of years of over-hiring, followed by a slight downturn. When money is cheap, companies over-hire. And when money is expe

by stray 2y ago

I think you're just seeing the results of years of over-hiring, followed by a slight downturn. When money is cheap, companies over-hire. And when money is expensive, companies fire/layoff/whatever. In this variation of musical chairs, you need to be seated before the music stops.

w4ffl35 2y ago
Possibly but I've been at it for 20 years - this is the first time I've experienced a drought like this.
- stray 2y ago
  34 years for me -- and this looks a lot like 2000 to me.
  - JohnFen 2y ago
    Even longer for me. This pales in comparison to the dot com bubble. The reality is that our industry has gone through these sorts of events a few times, and such events will happen again in the future.
    - w4ffl35 2y ago
      Many people saying programming won't exist as a profession within a year or two which is what makes me wonder if I should pivot.
      - JohnFen 2y ago
        Anyone saying that programming as a profession won't exist after a year or two are simply wrong. Period. There's literally no reason to think that would be true, and tons of reasons to think it isn't. Especially on such a short time scale. The most dramatic possible outcome in the next couple of years (and one I think is probable) is that programming will change, as it always does. Not that it will stop being a thing.
      - marssaxman 2y ago
        The programming profession I originally got into does not really exist anymore, but all these years later I am still making a good living doing loosely related work which is still called "programming", despite the fact that most of the programming I used to do is now automated. Even if new LLM-based tools automate most of the work I currently do - and I think it unlikely that will happen on such a short timescale (ten years, maybe, certainly not one) - there will still be plenty of work to do: someone will always need to boss the machine around, using some formal language or other, and we will probably continue calling that person a "programmer".
  - w4ffl35 2y ago
    Somewhat encouraging to read

by stray 2y ago

w4ffl35 2y ago

Possibly but I've been at it for 20 years - this is the first time I've experienced a drought like this.

stray 2y ago
34 years for me -- and this looks a lot like 2000 to me.
- JohnFen 2y ago
  Even longer for me. This pales in comparison to the dot com bubble. The reality is that our industry has gone through these sorts of events a few times, and such events will happen again in the future.
  - w4ffl35 2y ago
    Many people saying programming won't exist as a profession within a year or two which is what makes me wonder if I should pivot.
    - JohnFen 2y ago
      Anyone saying that programming as a profession won't exist after a year or two are simply wrong. Period. There's literally no reason to think that would be true, and tons of reasons to think it isn't. Especially on such a short time scale. The most dramatic possible outcome in the next couple of years (and one I think is probable) is that programming will change, as it always does. Not that it will stop being a thing.
    - marssaxman 2y ago
      The programming profession I originally got into does not really exist anymore, but all these years later I am still making a good living doing loosely related work which is still called "programming", despite the fact that most of the programming I used to do is now automated. Even if new LLM-based tools automate most of the work I currently do - and I think it unlikely that will happen on such a short timescale (ten years, maybe, certainly not one) - there will still be plenty of work to do: someone will always need to boss the machine around, using some formal language or other, and we will probably continue calling that person a "programmer".
- w4ffl35 2y ago
  Somewhat encouraging to read