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Interestingly Reddit saw through the click bait, but HN didn't. 1. The analysts quote is false: EPP purchases have been available for launch day for several ye

by quitit 2y ago

Interestingly Reddit saw through the click bait, but HN didn't. 1. The analysts quote is false: EPP purchases have been available for launch day for several years. (And he should know that, but analysts are part of the principal/agent problem.) 2. Analyst's sales figures are based on hot air. Apple don't publish them and, while this same claim is falsely made every year, the main data gathering metric for tracking sales in the past (the nebulous "emails receipts") has been knocked out. 3. The comments about China are not just false, but long out of date. iPhone demand in China has already rebounded from an industry-wide 2 month slump in February and March. 4. Finally: a cursory review of shipping times across a range of Apple's own websites shows the same level of demand as usual: as the largest iPhone markets the USA and China continue to have the lion's share of stock, while most others have already slipped into 2-3 week delivery windows for October: UK, DE, FR, AE, AU, NZ sampled.

danw1979 2y ago
Anecdata: I’m upgrading to a 16 this year and was ready for preorder at 1pm on the 13th, but due to a transient banking issue my credit card was repeatedly declined for about 20 mins. When I finally got an order in, the shipping date was a few weeks later. You can’t take any exact measurements from this but I’d say they’re selling plenty of them still.
dagmx 2y ago
My two thoughts: 1. HN on average loves Apple doom and gloom stories. So I’m not surprised nobody questions the premise of the article. 2. Kuo (the analyst in question here) has had a very poor track record in the last couple years. His strength has always been supply chain and manufacturing numbers but I think he’s been struggling as Apple has diversified outside of China. Beyond that, his conjecture has always been full of head scratchers because he’s never been good at putting a story to the numbers.

by quitit 2y ago

danw1979 2y ago

Anecdata: I’m upgrading to a 16 this year and was ready for preorder at 1pm on the 13th, but due to a transient banking issue my credit card was repeatedly declined for about 20 mins. When I finally got an order in, the shipping date was a few weeks later. You can’t take any exact measurements from this but I’d say they’re selling plenty of them still.

dagmx 2y ago

My two thoughts: 1. HN on average loves Apple doom and gloom stories. So I’m not surprised nobody questions the premise of the article. 2. Kuo (the analyst in question here) has had a very poor track record in the last couple years. His strength has always been supply chain and manufacturing numbers but I think he’s been struggling as Apple has diversified outside of China. Beyond that, his conjecture has always been full of head scratchers because he’s never been good at putting a story to the numbers.