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I live in Russia and I've never experienced most of the things you're describing. And it's become so much worse after 24/02/2022. We even had Spotify for a year

I live in Russia and I've never experienced most of the things you're describing. And it's become so much worse after 24/02/2022. We even had Spotify for a year! It was starting to genuinely feel like a first-world country. Now you have to open a bank account in a different country for foreign companies to consider taking your money at all. The internet is utterly broken. The government blocks quite a lot, AND some foreign services block Russian IPs from their side. I even made a thread about running into Cloudflare's "you're blocked" pages randomly throughout the web: https://mastodon.social/@grishka/111934602844613193 https://mastodon.social/@grishka/111934602844613193

aguaviva 2y ago
Do you think the sanctions are having a significant effect in terms of slowing down the war effort?
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  Sanctions have an effect, the government complains about them a lot.
  - chipdart 2y ago
    Random people in Russia complaining about the inconvenience of not being able to travel to Europe because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and all around imperialism is also an expected effect. It's also telling that the reaction from those affected is to complain that sanctions should be reverted because they both don't work and are inconvenient and a nuisance.
    - grishka 2y ago
      I don't see how "they don't work" and "they are inconvenient" are contradictory statements. They would've been if there were feedback mechanisms that we could use to communicate our point of view the government, but there aren't any, so in the end it's just a punishment for having been born in a wrong place at a wrong time.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        So in the end it's just a punishment for having been born in a wrong place at a wrong time. That's what war is, unfortunately. Millions of people in Ukraine are currently being "punished" for exactly the same offense, only in ways infinitely worse, as I don't need to tell you. There was absolutely no reason the war had to coming into being at all. But now that we're stuck with it, the only effective questions are -- what can be done to hasten its end; provide some level of justice for those affected the worst; and to make it clear to the responsible parties that something like this can never be allowed to happen on European soil ever again? For their own part -- it's not like the Western governments really have any other choice. Even though the sanctions are having a far more limited effect than they initially hoped -- they simply couldn't keep doing business with Russia as usual after what happened in 2022. That's all there is to it. Meaning, they've no choice but to apply the strongest possible sanctions as they might reasonably be able to (for some definition of "reasonable"). It's a cold and calculated strategy - but again, they didn't chose this situation, and that's the moral calculus that they are now forced to adopt in response to the situation that Putin created for them.
        justsomehnguy 2y ago
        [flagged]
        chipdart 2y ago
        > I like how you absolve the Western governments of any agency of their own. Cut the crap. Russia's regime decided to start a war of invasion. It's an initiative from Russia and Russia alone, and all consequences are derived from Russia's actions. There is no way around it.
        justsomehnguy 2y ago
        Ah, yes. Just one day Putin woke up and decided to start it. Nothing before. But you know, the most funny thing here is what you would never say "USA's regime decided to start a war of invasion in Iraq/Afghanistant/Yugoslavia. It's an initiative from US and US alone, and all consequences are derived from US's actions. There is no way around it." Makes me wonder why.
- grishka 2y ago
  Few of them do have an effect on the military, but hardly a significant one. Some of them forced the government officials to eat their own dog food. Most of them, however, feel like mocking petty revenge. If anything, those sanctions that disproportionately affect regular powerless people only reinforce the official propaganda's view that "we're encircled by enemies". Vladimir Kara-Murza expressed the same ideas much more eloquently on the press conference that followed the prisoner swap in August: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-opposition-figure-kara-murza-after-1722631238.html https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-opposition-figure-ka... In my own opinion, a good step in the right direction would be if we could travel to European countries as easily as we used to be able to. Then more people could see with their own eyes that they're being lied to.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Thanks -- those are some useful data points. What about the freezing (and probable eventual seizure) of $300b of CBRF assets (apparently 60 percent its total foreign currency reserves)? That's got to be causing some significant pain, somewhere.
    - grishka 2y ago
      Not sure if it's caused by this or the sanctions related to USD and EUR currencies themselves, but CBRF has introduced limitations on foreign currency transactions in March 2022. They were supposed to last 6 months but every time they're about to expire they get extended for 6 more months. You can't withdraw more than $10k of USD or EUR cash combined from all foreign currency accounts in each bank, and you can only withdraw the money that was there before March 2022. Past that limit and for any money you received after March, you can only withdraw it as rubles at the CBRF exchange rate, iirc. Most banks also treat dollars and euros like they're radioactive and will hit you with monthly fees if you have too much. So in the end we have three different exchange rates for these currencies: the CBRF one, the one for online operations with those "virtual" dollars and euros in currency accounts, and the "real" one for cash.
  - chipdart 2y ago
    > In my own opinion, a good step in the right direction would be if we could travel to European countries as easily as we used to be able to. I don't agree. Russia's regime threatens Europe with invasion and nuclear bombs almost on a daily basis, and vilify everyone who doesn't enthusiastically support their invasion of Ukraine. A few years ago Russia even had a nuclear bomber circling the coast of western Europe. This behavior is not limited to government. It's not unheard of having Russian tourists insulting and threatening locals. In Europe or in any corner of the world. There are also Russian citizens attacking refugees and asylum seekers in foreign soil, even Russia's own war dodgers. You cannot expect to systematically threat neighbors and still demand or even expect them to continue to cater to the whims of the agressor. It is a voluntary relationship that cuts both ways. When you start a war, you should expect to experience war.
- ZoomZoomZoom 2y ago
  I'm not an expert and don't have the necessary and verifiable information to asses the consequences in regards to economy/industry, but the sociocultural effects are negative. 1. Sanctions sped up the formation of the class of war beneficiaries. Sanctions created the demand for sanction circumvention. Since their scope is huge, the demand is accordingly very high (from civil consumers to the government). This led to formation of new supply chains that keep being profitable only while the war and sanctions continue. Now thousands of people engaged in these activities have the monetary incentive to support the war and the government course. This one I deem to be the most consequential in the long term. 2. Any noticeable conflict or rights violation happening with Russian citizens abroad is to be blown out of proportion and presented as a confirmation of pervasive anti-Russian sentiment and support the government narrative of existing encircled by enemies. 3. The lack of accessible ways of integration of the emigrants into local societies (especially in Europe) led to thousands of them coming back, some unwillingly, some grudgingly and feeling disillusioned. This is a huge wasted opportunity and I don't get why it happened (I don't buy the "we must secure our countries against possible threat actors and dirty money" explanation).

aguaviva 2y ago

Do you think the sanctions are having a significant effect in terms of slowing down the war effort?

throwaway48476 2y ago
Sanctions have an effect, the government complains about them a lot.
- chipdart 2y ago
  Random people in Russia complaining about the inconvenience of not being able to travel to Europe because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and all around imperialism is also an expected effect. It's also telling that the reaction from those affected is to complain that sanctions should be reverted because they both don't work and are inconvenient and a nuisance.
  - grishka 2y ago
    I don't see how "they don't work" and "they are inconvenient" are contradictory statements. They would've been if there were feedback mechanisms that we could use to communicate our point of view the government, but there aren't any, so in the end it's just a punishment for having been born in a wrong place at a wrong time.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      So in the end it's just a punishment for having been born in a wrong place at a wrong time. That's what war is, unfortunately. Millions of people in Ukraine are currently being "punished" for exactly the same offense, only in ways infinitely worse, as I don't need to tell you. There was absolutely no reason the war had to coming into being at all. But now that we're stuck with it, the only effective questions are -- what can be done to hasten its end; provide some level of justice for those affected the worst; and to make it clear to the responsible parties that something like this can never be allowed to happen on European soil ever again? For their own part -- it's not like the Western governments really have any other choice. Even though the sanctions are having a far more limited effect than they initially hoped -- they simply couldn't keep doing business with Russia as usual after what happened in 2022. That's all there is to it. Meaning, they've no choice but to apply the strongest possible sanctions as they might reasonably be able to (for some definition of "reasonable"). It's a cold and calculated strategy - but again, they didn't chose this situation, and that's the moral calculus that they are now forced to adopt in response to the situation that Putin created for them.
      - justsomehnguy 2y ago
        [flagged]
        chipdart 2y ago
        > I like how you absolve the Western governments of any agency of their own. Cut the crap. Russia's regime decided to start a war of invasion. It's an initiative from Russia and Russia alone, and all consequences are derived from Russia's actions. There is no way around it.
        justsomehnguy 2y ago
        Ah, yes. Just one day Putin woke up and decided to start it. Nothing before. But you know, the most funny thing here is what you would never say "USA's regime decided to start a war of invasion in Iraq/Afghanistant/Yugoslavia. It's an initiative from US and US alone, and all consequences are derived from US's actions. There is no way around it." Makes me wonder why.
grishka 2y ago
Few of them do have an effect on the military, but hardly a significant one. Some of them forced the government officials to eat their own dog food. Most of them, however, feel like mocking petty revenge. If anything, those sanctions that disproportionately affect regular powerless people only reinforce the official propaganda's view that "we're encircled by enemies". Vladimir Kara-Murza expressed the same ideas much more eloquently on the press conference that followed the prisoner swap in August: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-opposition-figure-kara-murza-after-1722631238.html https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-opposition-figure-ka... In my own opinion, a good step in the right direction would be if we could travel to European countries as easily as we used to be able to. Then more people could see with their own eyes that they're being lied to.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Thanks -- those are some useful data points. What about the freezing (and probable eventual seizure) of $300b of CBRF assets (apparently 60 percent its total foreign currency reserves)? That's got to be causing some significant pain, somewhere.
  - grishka 2y ago
    Not sure if it's caused by this or the sanctions related to USD and EUR currencies themselves, but CBRF has introduced limitations on foreign currency transactions in March 2022. They were supposed to last 6 months but every time they're about to expire they get extended for 6 more months. You can't withdraw more than $10k of USD or EUR cash combined from all foreign currency accounts in each bank, and you can only withdraw the money that was there before March 2022. Past that limit and for any money you received after March, you can only withdraw it as rubles at the CBRF exchange rate, iirc. Most banks also treat dollars and euros like they're radioactive and will hit you with monthly fees if you have too much. So in the end we have three different exchange rates for these currencies: the CBRF one, the one for online operations with those "virtual" dollars and euros in currency accounts, and the "real" one for cash.
- chipdart 2y ago
  > In my own opinion, a good step in the right direction would be if we could travel to European countries as easily as we used to be able to. I don't agree. Russia's regime threatens Europe with invasion and nuclear bombs almost on a daily basis, and vilify everyone who doesn't enthusiastically support their invasion of Ukraine. A few years ago Russia even had a nuclear bomber circling the coast of western Europe. This behavior is not limited to government. It's not unheard of having Russian tourists insulting and threatening locals. In Europe or in any corner of the world. There are also Russian citizens attacking refugees and asylum seekers in foreign soil, even Russia's own war dodgers. You cannot expect to systematically threat neighbors and still demand or even expect them to continue to cater to the whims of the agressor. It is a voluntary relationship that cuts both ways. When you start a war, you should expect to experience war.
ZoomZoomZoom 2y ago
I'm not an expert and don't have the necessary and verifiable information to asses the consequences in regards to economy/industry, but the sociocultural effects are negative. 1. Sanctions sped up the formation of the class of war beneficiaries. Sanctions created the demand for sanction circumvention. Since their scope is huge, the demand is accordingly very high (from civil consumers to the government). This led to formation of new supply chains that keep being profitable only while the war and sanctions continue. Now thousands of people engaged in these activities have the monetary incentive to support the war and the government course. This one I deem to be the most consequential in the long term. 2. Any noticeable conflict or rights violation happening with Russian citizens abroad is to be blown out of proportion and presented as a confirmation of pervasive anti-Russian sentiment and support the government narrative of existing encircled by enemies. 3. The lack of accessible ways of integration of the emigrants into local societies (especially in Europe) led to thousands of them coming back, some unwillingly, some grudgingly and feeling disillusioned. This is a huge wasted opportunity and I don't get why it happened (I don't buy the "we must secure our countries against possible threat actors and dirty money" explanation).