2 ms·
Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what
by s1artibartfast 2y ago
Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas
I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
- ceejayoz 2y ago> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though. > That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point. > I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet. I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).
- talldayo 2y ago> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? They sure don't seem motivated to stop, if Israel's pre-planned response is still fratricide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive
- s1artibartfast 2y agoif anything, Israel seems overly concerned with prisoner recovery, given the current situation in gaza and the Lebanon war