4 ms·

Face saving. It's easier to put a PR spin on something only a few people actually saw. It's going to be hard to convince their rank-and-file this isn't a bit de

by ethbr1 2y ago

Face saving. It's easier to put a PR spin on something only a few people actually saw. It's going to be hard to convince their rank-and-file this isn't a bit deal and deserving of retribution.

s1artibartfast 2y ago
[flagged]
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  A missile is a demonstration of military force. Everyone in the region knows Israel is capable of blowing up a building. This is a "we've got you hopelessly compromised as an organization" sort of demonstration that's far more humiliating. For a similar example, see the US response to 9/11 - two decades of war, taking shoes off at airports, etc. - versus the US response to COVID, which killed a 9/11 worth every couple of days, but resulted in a "but I don't wanna wear a mask" response.
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      > It's easy to sit online and make bold and vague claims like there will be armed escalation in retaliation. I mean, that's the pretty standard response in this conflict. Permanent tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, for decades/millennia depending on how broadly you count things. For a concrete example, Iran's April strikes. > What do you think constitutes a major escalation? Terror attacks on Israeli assets abroad - I'd be keeping embassies/consulates on alert - and rocket strikes against Israel. At least enough to try to save face, although the Iranian strikes offer a "good luck" for that. > I would happily bet against a ground invasion. By Hezbollah? Well, yeah.
      - s1artibartfast 2y ago
        [flagged]
        ceejayoz 2y ago
        I think Netanyahu's champing at the bit for escalation, and there's plenty of precedent for relatively small things triggering big responses. As a concrete example, the last big Israel-Lebanon war resulted from the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a border raid; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War
        s1artibartfast 2y ago
        Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
        ceejayoz 2y ago
        > Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though. > That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point. > I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet. I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).
        talldayo 2y ago

by ethbr1 2y ago

Face saving. It's easier to put a PR spin on something only a few people actually saw. It's going to be hard to convince their rank-and-file this isn't a bit deal and deserving of retribution.

s1artibartfast 2y ago

[flagged]

ceejayoz 2y ago
A missile is a demonstration of military force. Everyone in the region knows Israel is capable of blowing up a building. This is a "we've got you hopelessly compromised as an organization" sort of demonstration that's far more humiliating. For a similar example, see the US response to 9/11 - two decades of war, taking shoes off at airports, etc. - versus the US response to COVID, which killed a 9/11 worth every couple of days, but resulted in a "but I don't wanna wear a mask" response.
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    > It's easy to sit online and make bold and vague claims like there will be armed escalation in retaliation. I mean, that's the pretty standard response in this conflict. Permanent tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, for decades/millennia depending on how broadly you count things. For a concrete example, Iran's April strikes. > What do you think constitutes a major escalation? Terror attacks on Israeli assets abroad - I'd be keeping embassies/consulates on alert - and rocket strikes against Israel. At least enough to try to save face, although the Iranian strikes offer a "good luck" for that. > I would happily bet against a ground invasion. By Hezbollah? Well, yeah.
    - s1artibartfast 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - ceejayoz 2y ago
        I think Netanyahu's champing at the bit for escalation, and there's plenty of precedent for relatively small things triggering big responses. As a concrete example, the last big Israel-Lebanon war resulted from the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a border raid; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War
        s1artibartfast 2y ago
        Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
        ceejayoz 2y ago
        > Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though. > That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point. > I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet. I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).
        talldayo 2y ago