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From a realpolitik standpoint, China has embraced elements of capitalism as a key strategy for economic growth. If I were to offer a speculative (and somewhat t
by wslh 2y ago
From a realpolitik standpoint, China has embraced elements of capitalism as a key strategy for economic growth. If I were to offer a speculative (and somewhat tongue-in-cheek) recommendation for Xi Jinping, it might be to create a free zone modeled on Western liberal traditions to compete more effectively with Silicon Valley and the U.S. Of course, Hong Kong was arguably positioned for this role, but given its recent trajectory, it raises the question of whether such a zone could exist within China's current political framework. Could a new experiment along these lines reconcile liberal economic freedoms with centralized political control?
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoIt won't work. Even if some carveout is made so that it is not "within China's current political framework", after Hong Kong, who can be sure that it would remain so? A "new experiment" along these lines won't be trusted enough to work, at least not during Xi's lifetime.
- wslh 2y agoI agree that this hypothesis has a very low chance of materializing, and, as you pointed out, it seems already "priced into the market". That said, given China's extensive involvement in many countries, such as in Latin America, Africa, and others through infrastructure projects and strategic investments, I'm curious: do you have any contrarian views on what moves China could make to boost its growth?
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoStop stifling dissent. People who can think freely on software, or chemistry or whatever, are not eager to accept a situation where they cannot also think freely about politics and international relations. Accept reality in international situations. (Taiwan is a de facto separate country; the nine-dash line is a mapmaker's aberration rather than any kind of reality.) Accept reality in economic statistics. (A number of those apartment buildings are worth zero.) Accept reality in society. (People don't like being fed propaganda. People don't like thinking that they can be in trouble for saying what they think.) But I don't think they can do those things and keep any kind of "business as usual"...
- maxglute 2y agoNew experiment is Hainan Free Trade Port FTZ but that's not really vs silicon valley. IMO software/services downstream of hardware/silicon, and geopolitically, PRC competing on that would really spook US. But medium term, need to be done, especially via industrial policy vs US encumbants whose been around for decades. I think once PRC gets a whiff that entire domestic semi supply chain secure they're going to push hard on 5 year plans for software... i.e. go after microsoft, adobe, autodesk... the productivity suites that run the world, and everything else in between, if only as jobs program for stupid amount of software engineers they'll churning out. Also HK won't won't work because it's been tried and failed. HK existed for 20 years post handover and continued to double down on being financialization with very little technical/innovation relative to her resources. There were explicit efforts to try to build out HK tech / silicon valley and they failed. IMO liberal economic freedoms is also why HK has some of the worst tertiary enrollement stats relative to OECD... it's a city of to be blunt, lazy kids (referring to new gens under liberal education vs their mainland immigrant parents). At least relative to east asia. Propped up by importing foreign and mainland talent. If it sounds like I just described the state of America education and the various indigenous problems this report covers, then bingo.