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A commonly cited analyst described lower than expected sales of iPhone 16 Pro due to AI features not rolling out until October. https://www.macrumors.com/2024/

A commonly cited analyst described lower than expected sales of iPhone 16 Pro due to AI features not rolling out until October. https://www.macrumors.com/2024/09/15/iphone-16-pro-demand-estimate/ https://www.macrumors.com/2024/09/15/iphone-16-pro-demand-es... I find that a little hard to believe. I would suppose the vast majority of customers don't think a lot about the timing of software features in a purchase decision.

freeone3000 2y ago
It’s not as if the hardware features on the 16 Pro are groundbreaking — a slightly nicer camera, a slightly nicer display, a slightly nicer battery life, and a $600 upgrade fee. No, thank you, the software features are what make-or-break the upgrade.
- shinycode 2y ago
  Phones nowadays are made to last years, even 6+ years easily. So the update this year is not for the people who bought it last year but for people with an iPhone X or 11. They will see major improvements. But it’s silly to update (any) flagship phone every year.
  - freeone3000 2y ago
    Okay, but then, why upgrade to a 16 Pro instead of the much cheaper 15 Pro? The price difference applies there too — there needs to be some reason to get the newest, most expensive one. This generation it is not hardware.
    - shinycode 2y ago
      Well this applies to everything then. Why buy the latest AMD or Intel CPU or Nvidia GPU ? Some people upgrade from iPhone X to 15 this year because it’s cheaper. Some have an old iPhone and just want the latest model to go for 6 or 7 more years. Even incremental upgrades like this year are welcome. Before there was an S model every other year. This year it’s the « iPhone 15S pro ». Slightly better and more powerful. The other thing is, I think it’s pretty hard to say « well last year model was good enough, we’ll go on a 2 year cycle this time ». It could send the wrong message to investors so they’re trapped in the race maybe ?
      - freeone3000 2y ago
        Usually because there’s some advantage — you actually need/want the performance offered by Zen4 over Zen3, you need four-cycle AXV512, you have a target framerate in a game, you need RTX or CUDA14… because if you don’t, obviously buying older and used saves you money and you don’t need the new stuff anyway.
philistine 2y ago
Ming-Chi Kuo is the golden standard for reports on Apple's production apparatus. He has the best sources, the best leaks, the best insight into very specific discussions regarding parts acquisition for Apple. When it comes to what Apple does with those parts, or market segmentation, or sale projection, he's got no special knowledge. In this specific case, pardon the technical language, but he's full of ...
yunwal 2y ago
I would guess that the vast majority of customers don’t even know when a new iPhone is released and therefore don’t buy in the first few weeks after it’s released. Of the customers that are aware of the release, I would assume that most are aware because they’re anticipating new features
eli 2y ago
If you're not interested in AI features I'm not sure why you would wait at all rather than just buy a 15 Pro
toofy 2y ago
absolutely anecdotal, but from my experience, people who are normally excited for iPhones really don’t care about AI at all. i think Apple hyping AI so much was a mistake, doesn’t have nearly the same impact to them as hyping up a new camera feature or a new screen or a new color or something.
llm_nerd 2y ago
The same AI features are coming to the entire iPhone 16 line. The major benefit of the 16 Pro, just as with prior generations, is a faster SoC and better cameras. The only reason the iPhone 15 Pro was the only of the 15 generation to get the AI stuff is that they happened to put 8GB in that device, giving it enough headroom to not majorly impact user enjoyment trying to cram a multi-GB model into memory. But all of the iPhone 16s have 8GB (+?)
- drexlspivey 2y ago
  Isn't RAM super cheap? Why can't they ship an iPhone with 16GB RAM to run all the LLMs locally?
latexr 2y ago
> I would suppose the vast majority of customers don't think a lot about the timing of software features in a purchase decision. The ones who buy on day one do. I don’t find it surprising that the people who even know about and anticipate the release date of a product are the ones who are eager for specific features. If those aren’t there yet, there’s no rush to buy. I’m no analyst but I expect demand in the EU won’t be that (comparatively) great either. When the flagship feature isn’t available, there’s little reason to spend the extra money.

freeone3000 2y ago

It’s not as if the hardware features on the 16 Pro are groundbreaking — a slightly nicer camera, a slightly nicer display, a slightly nicer battery life, and a $600 upgrade fee. No, thank you, the software features are what make-or-break the upgrade.

shinycode 2y ago
Phones nowadays are made to last years, even 6+ years easily. So the update this year is not for the people who bought it last year but for people with an iPhone X or 11. They will see major improvements. But it’s silly to update (any) flagship phone every year.
- freeone3000 2y ago
  Okay, but then, why upgrade to a 16 Pro instead of the much cheaper 15 Pro? The price difference applies there too — there needs to be some reason to get the newest, most expensive one. This generation it is not hardware.
  - shinycode 2y ago
    Well this applies to everything then. Why buy the latest AMD or Intel CPU or Nvidia GPU ? Some people upgrade from iPhone X to 15 this year because it’s cheaper. Some have an old iPhone and just want the latest model to go for 6 or 7 more years. Even incremental upgrades like this year are welcome. Before there was an S model every other year. This year it’s the « iPhone 15S pro ». Slightly better and more powerful. The other thing is, I think it’s pretty hard to say « well last year model was good enough, we’ll go on a 2 year cycle this time ». It could send the wrong message to investors so they’re trapped in the race maybe ?
    - freeone3000 2y ago
      Usually because there’s some advantage — you actually need/want the performance offered by Zen4 over Zen3, you need four-cycle AXV512, you have a target framerate in a game, you need RTX or CUDA14… because if you don’t, obviously buying older and used saves you money and you don’t need the new stuff anyway.

philistine 2y ago

Ming-Chi Kuo is the golden standard for reports on Apple's production apparatus. He has the best sources, the best leaks, the best insight into very specific discussions regarding parts acquisition for Apple. When it comes to what Apple does with those parts, or market segmentation, or sale projection, he's got no special knowledge. In this specific case, pardon the technical language, but he's full of ...

yunwal 2y ago

I would guess that the vast majority of customers don’t even know when a new iPhone is released and therefore don’t buy in the first few weeks after it’s released. Of the customers that are aware of the release, I would assume that most are aware because they’re anticipating new features

eli 2y ago

If you're not interested in AI features I'm not sure why you would wait at all rather than just buy a 15 Pro

toofy 2y ago

absolutely anecdotal, but from my experience, people who are normally excited for iPhones really don’t care about AI at all. i think Apple hyping AI so much was a mistake, doesn’t have nearly the same impact to them as hyping up a new camera feature or a new screen or a new color or something.

llm_nerd 2y ago

The same AI features are coming to the entire iPhone 16 line. The major benefit of the 16 Pro, just as with prior generations, is a faster SoC and better cameras. The only reason the iPhone 15 Pro was the only of the 15 generation to get the AI stuff is that they happened to put 8GB in that device, giving it enough headroom to not majorly impact user enjoyment trying to cram a multi-GB model into memory. But all of the iPhone 16s have 8GB (+?)

drexlspivey 2y ago
Isn't RAM super cheap? Why can't they ship an iPhone with 16GB RAM to run all the LLMs locally?

latexr 2y ago

> I would suppose the vast majority of customers don't think a lot about the timing of software features in a purchase decision. The ones who buy on day one do. I don’t find it surprising that the people who even know about and anticipate the release date of a product are the ones who are eager for specific features. If those aren’t there yet, there’s no rush to buy. I’m no analyst but I expect demand in the EU won’t be that (comparatively) great either. When the flagship feature isn’t available, there’s little reason to spend the extra money.