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That chart shows one unfortunate person getting a prediction of 400 days, and dying one day after the prediction was made. I wonder whether the cause of death
by chmod775 2y ago
That chart shows one unfortunate person getting a prediction of 400 days, and dying one day after the prediction was made.
I wonder whether the cause of death was even related to the disease. That may explain some of the discrepancy: Doctors predicting when someone is likely to succumb to a specific thing, but discounting that something else may do them in first.
- onionisafruit 2y agoNot that extreme but my mother went from the doctor saying that her cancer was likely taken care of by surgery to dying from it 9 days later. I believe doctors could be off by 399 days easily.
- taikon 2y agoComparing estimated vs actual survival suffers from hindsight bias in the same way that you alluded. Though it's still well known that doctors overestimate survival. Which is why they use tools like Palliative Performance Scale [1] to address this. [1] https://www.mypcnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/e37642_380c74d6fc0d43e6a67b6303dfd9a72a.jpg https://www.mypcnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/e37642_38...