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Before it can replace the brilliant programmer, it needs to be able to replace the mediocre programmer. There is so much programming and other tech/it related w

Before it can replace the brilliant programmer, it needs to be able to replace the mediocre programmer. There is so much programming and other tech/it related work that businesses or people want, but can't justify paying even low tech salaries in America for. So far, there is little chance of a non-technical person developing a technical solution to their problems using AI.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Before it can replace the brilliant programmer, it needs to be able to replace the mediocre programmer Nope. Compensation is exponential. Being able to replace a top performer with a fee mediocre devs pair coding with an LLM is more than fine for 90% of use cases.
- IncreasePosts 2y ago
  A mediocre programmer won't be able to judge the allegedly expert level output any better than a non-programmer, so I don't see how that would work. I think it is more likely that great programmers might just increase their productivity even more with, which will make their value even greater.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > mediocre programmer won't be able to judge the allegedly expert level output any better than a non-programmer, so I don't see how that would work Sure. Plenty of businesses are. Particularly in the commercial automation sector that numerically hires the most people. > more likely that great programmers might just increase their productivity For those in high-productivity, high-margin businesses, yes. For most of the world, no—the surplus productivity doesn’t outweigh the compensation and concentration risk. I broadly expect a spate of age discrimination lawsuits in the near future because most businesses don’t need a few stars. In the meantime, I’ve watched a lot of people find two people in Brazil + an LLM equals one WFH very good (but not brilliant) coder.
- zeroonetwothree 2y ago
  This makes no sense, there are problems that 'brilliant' programmers can solve and no number of mediocre ones ones. Just like you can't substitute Mozart with 100 mediocre composers.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > there are problems that 'brilliant' programmers can solve and no number of mediocre ones ones These people will continue to have value. But most businesses don’t have problems that can be profitable solved only by brilliant coders.
  - 9dev 2y ago
    So, how many people listen to Mozart and how many to Taylor Swift?
    - jessekv 2y ago
      Now, or in 300 years?
  - closewith 2y ago
    > Just like you can't substitute Mozart with 100 mediocre composers. Commercially, you can. After all, that's the current music business.
- simonw 2y ago
  I would expect a top performer with LLM access to be able to produce even more of a multiple of the work of a mediocre developer with LLM access. If a top performer can produce 5x or more of the value, I would expect companies to continue to value top performers.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> Before it can replace the brilliant programmer, it needs to be able to replace the mediocre programmer Nope. Compensation is exponential. Being able to replace a top performer with a fee mediocre devs pair coding with an LLM is more than fine for 90% of use cases.

IncreasePosts 2y ago
A mediocre programmer won't be able to judge the allegedly expert level output any better than a non-programmer, so I don't see how that would work. I think it is more likely that great programmers might just increase their productivity even more with, which will make their value even greater.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > mediocre programmer won't be able to judge the allegedly expert level output any better than a non-programmer, so I don't see how that would work Sure. Plenty of businesses are. Particularly in the commercial automation sector that numerically hires the most people. > more likely that great programmers might just increase their productivity For those in high-productivity, high-margin businesses, yes. For most of the world, no—the surplus productivity doesn’t outweigh the compensation and concentration risk. I broadly expect a spate of age discrimination lawsuits in the near future because most businesses don’t need a few stars. In the meantime, I’ve watched a lot of people find two people in Brazil + an LLM equals one WFH very good (but not brilliant) coder.
zeroonetwothree 2y ago
This makes no sense, there are problems that 'brilliant' programmers can solve and no number of mediocre ones ones. Just like you can't substitute Mozart with 100 mediocre composers.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > there are problems that 'brilliant' programmers can solve and no number of mediocre ones ones These people will continue to have value. But most businesses don’t have problems that can be profitable solved only by brilliant coders.
- 9dev 2y ago
  So, how many people listen to Mozart and how many to Taylor Swift?
  - jessekv 2y ago
    Now, or in 300 years?
- closewith 2y ago
  > Just like you can't substitute Mozart with 100 mediocre composers. Commercially, you can. After all, that's the current music business.
simonw 2y ago
I would expect a top performer with LLM access to be able to produce even more of a multiple of the work of a mediocre developer with LLM access. If a top performer can produce 5x or more of the value, I would expect companies to continue to value top performers.